Russia vs. U.S. Nuclear War Is Highly Unlikely

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Russia vs. U.S. Nuclear War Is Highly Unlikely
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Russia and the U.S. are aggressively upgrading their nuclear arsenal as tensions between the two countries continue to mount. Washington is sending hundreds of howitzers, tanks and other lethal weapons to Eastern Europe amid Russia’s ‘nuclear rhetoric.” It has fueled worries that even an accidental escalation could lead to a nuclear war.

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Only 2% probability of a nuclear war between Russia and the U.S.

A Gallup poll conducted last year found that 50% Americans believe the country was headed back to Cold War. While the mainstream public opinion is highly pessimistic, there is very little chance of a nuclear war between the two powers. Russian political analyst Fyodor Lukyanov recently told Vox that “a war is not something that’s impossible anymore.” Even if the two countries engage in a conflict, could it lead to a nuclear war?

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Political analyst Jay Ulfelder, who runs the Dart-Throwing Chimp blog, conducted a survey. He asked people on the online political science expert communities two questions: What are the odds of a Russia vs U.S. war before 2020; and if such a conflict occurred, whether it would turn into a nuclear war. He collected responses and ran them through statistical analysis.

Russia Nuclear war

Ulfelder found that only 11% people said there was a probability of war between the two countries. Conditional on war, there was 18% probability that one or both sides will resort to nuclear weapons. Ulfelder translated these figures into a single number: 2% probability of a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia.

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Difference between mainstream public and expert opinion

The results of his survey are in line with that of a survey by Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP). TRIP asked scholars, “How likely is a war between the United States and Russia over the next decade? Please use the 0–10 scale with 10 indicating that war will definitely occur.” They received responses from 2,040 scholars. On a scale of 0-10, the average perceived risk of war with Russia was 2.55. Their opinions were dramatically different from the mainstream public opinion.

On the occasion of the U.S. Independence Day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a message of greetings to President Obama that even though some disagreements exist between the U.S. and Russia, they could peacefully resolve the issues through dialogue. Putin said relations between Moscow and Washington were “a crucial factor for international stability.”

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8 COMMENTS

  1. We left Cold War behind almost from
    more than two decades. The trends of international politics are kept on
    changing and many new contenders come in. But Russian and Americans can’t move
    an inch from their Cold War rivalry. Yes, nuclear war is highly unlikely because
    both sides know very well the mutual destruction of target and attacker. That is
    why Cold War rivals focus on proxy war and countering influence of each other. Ukraine
    unrest symbolizes the very existing rift between Russia and America.

  2. After looking at the current status and politics among the US and Russia, it smells like both state are still living in the past and have not taken a single move till now. Both are trying to upgrade their nuclear arsenals, using the old tactics of waging and later winning the war against each other, despite of knowing the fact that world has become globalized, war has become an illusion and peace is the only option available with states. So in order to amke the global politics move smoothly and to maintain the peace of the world it is necessary to indulge each other in fruitful and productive talks rather in developing war machinery

  3. Whichever way we look at the rising geopolitical tension within the
    European and North American alliance, we see a psychopathic ruling class
    that knows no other way out of their dilemma – ‘the death agony of
    capitalism’. Unfortunately as this situation intensifies it also looks
    more and more likely that many millions of innocent people – including
    their obedient and thereby relatively less innocent universal soldiers,
    will die because of and even for this ruling class obsession.

  4. It wasn’t the public that was survived. In both surveys talked about,
    the questions were posed to scholars and foreign policy experts. There
    is an interesting break down of respondents in the original FP write up.

  5. That is my thoughts exactly, and the only real reason the general public think we wont be headed into a nuclear war is because theyre afraid. This article is absolute nonsense.

Comments are closed.