Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]

 

The folks at Société Générale, France’s third largest bank, are avid birdwatchers.

 

Downside risks and their probability:

• 45% – Great Britain leaves the EU
• 40% – Greece defaults on debt and then (20%) Greece leaves the EU
• 30% – China hard lands (growth of
• 25% – US consumer saves more
• 10% – Fed behind the dots

Upside risks and their probability:

• 15% – Higher-than-expected price multipliers
• 10% – Fast track reform, particularly in Euro Area

 

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