Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]

Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]

Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]


The folks at Société Générale, France’s third largest bank, are avid birdwatchers.


Greenlight Beat The S&P In Q4: Here Are The Fund’s Biggest Winners

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Downside risks and their probability:

  • 45% – Great Britain leaves the EU
  • 40% – Greece defaults on debt and then (20%) Greece leaves the EU
  • 30% – China hard lands (growth of
  • 25% – US consumer saves more
  • 10% – Fed behind the dots

Upside risks and their probability:

  • 15% – Higher-than-expected price multipliers
  • 10% – Fast track reform, particularly in Euro Area


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