Black Swans on the Horizon [Chart]
The folks at Société Générale, France’s third largest bank, are avid birdwatchers.
Downside risks and their probability:
- 45% – Great Britain leaves the EU
- 40% – Greece defaults on debt and then (20%) Greece leaves the EU
- 30% – China hard lands (growth of
- 25% – US consumer saves more
- 10% – Fed behind the dots
Upside risks and their probability:
- 15% – Higher-than-expected price multipliers
- 10% – Fast track reform, particularly in Euro Area
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