David Tepper, the hedge fund manager of Appaloosa Management warned that 2015 is poised to be like 1999, which was referred to as the dot-com bubble.
In an e-mail to CNBC‘s Matthew J. Belvedere and Evelyn Cheng, Tepper wrote, “This year rhymes with 1998. Russia goes bad. Easing [is] coming from Europe. Sets up 1999 … [oops] I mean 2015.”
According to David Tepper, investors should be aware of the possibility of some sort of overvaluation of the markets. He noted that the markets are currently on a fair value.
David Tepper noted that worldwide money were made too easy
David Tepper noted the fact that the fundamentals in the United States in late 1998 and 2014 are similar citing the reason that worldwide money were made too easy. He pointed out that the situation that occurred in 1999 was “not exactly the same,” but there are similarities
The hedge fund manager noted, “Remember in 1999 the S&P [500] went to a 30 PE [price-to-earnings ratio]. Next year PE is now like 16.”
In 1999, the S&P 500 ended at an all-time high at 1,469.25 points. The index gained more than 19.5% that year and went up to its highest level in 2000. The S&P 500 eventually declined to its lowest level in 2002.
The Dow Jones and the NASDAQ recorded outstanding gains of 25.2% and 85.6% in 1999, respectively. The NASDAQ suffered a steep decline in the early 2000 and the broader market followed a similar downward trend.
Recent Russian financial crisis similar in 1998
CNBC noted that the recent financial crisis affecting Russia is similar to its situation in 1998. Back then, the Russian government and central bank defaulted its debt and devalued the ruble. During the time, Russia was severely impacted by several factors including the Asian financial crisis, the decline for the demand of crude oil and nonferrous metals.
At present, Russia’s economy is poised to a recession primarily due to the declining oil prices and sanctions. The ruble has been sliding, and it has been one of the worst-performing currencies worldwide. In order to stabilize its currency, the Russian government ordered the biggest state-controlled exporters to reduce their foreign-currency assets to October levels, and maintain it until March next year.
David Tepper’s hedge fund performance
David Tepper’s hedge fund has around $20 billion in assets under management (AUM). Last year, Appaloosa Management recorded 42% return, higher that the 30% gain of the S&P 500. He was among the highest paid hedge fund managers last year. He earned $3.3 billion.
Appaloosa Management is planning to return 10% to 20% of assets to investors by the end of this year. Last spring, Tepper offered a more cautious statement during his speech at the SALT 2014 in Las Vegas. During the event, he said, “Don’t be too frickin’ long right now.”