For Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA), one of the main concerns is British Game developer King, who has expanded its subscriber base to approximately 50 million users in 2013, on Candy Crush Saga alone. However, the success of Candy Crush within just a few months leaves a ray of hope for Zynga, who can expect some upside if its new games become popular, believe analysts Ken Sena and Andrew McNellis from Evercore Partners.
King commanded 3 percent of all domestic mobile time spent in June, which is an increase from o percent in December. For the same period Zynga registered 2 percent mobile time.
Zynga has potential to deliver
Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA) though also has a potential threat in the form of the King, but Zynga has developed similar games in the past like the popular Bubble Safari, and there is no reason why it can’t do that again.
One major difference that could be drawn is that King has achieved monetization at much higher levels with conversion around 30 percent, implying a customer base of around 13.5 million people compared to Zynga’s 2 million. This difference is primarily due to opportunities that the users get within a game to purchase “boosts” or “power-ups” to cross the most difficult levels. Passing difficult levels instills a sense of confidence in the player and increases the chances for further purchase. King has raked in $300 million from Candy Crush alone on an annualized basis, which establishes that hit games can be created overnight in mobile.
If top line executives of Zynga achieve moderate success on mobile, analysts believe there is a chance for a fundamental inflection, and Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA) can reacquire some of the ground lost.
Falling MAUs a concern
Though analysts are positive on Zynga, they are concerned over monthly average user (MAU) trends across both desktop and mobile, which remain alarming. In August, seven out of Zynga’s top ten games were not performing well compared to figures in July, two games are flat, and only Zynga Poker is doing well. Games like CoasterVille, Bubble Safari, ChefVille, and CastleVille are all down double-digits in August vs. July.