The Safest Bet for 2012: Forget All the Predictions

The Safest Bet for 2012: Forget All the Predictions

My first of many on this topic.


Einhorn’s FOF Re-positions Portfolio, Makes New Seed Investment In Year Marked By “Speculative Exuberance”

david einhorn, reading, valuewalk, internet, investment research, Greenlight Capital, hedge funds, Greenlight Masters, famous hedge fund owners, big value investors, websites, books, reading financials, investment analysis, shortselling, investment conferences, shorting, short biasIt has not just been rough year for David Einhorn's own fund. Einhorn's Greenlight Masters fund of hedge funds was down 3% net for the first half of 2020, matching the S&P 500's return for those six months. In his August letter to investors, which was reviewed by ValueWalk, the Greenlight Masters team noted that Read More

At the end of every year, it is the peeve of every “expert” analyst to try and forecast what will happen next year. This applies to the field of politics, economics, world events and almost everything.

However, there is little accountability, and very few people examine whether any of the so-called experts are right.

Let’s remember some events which happened in 2011, which no one ever predicted: NATO would go to war against Libya, a massive tsunami would devastate Japan, there would be uprisings in many Arab countries, and Europe’s economy would be close to its death.

This is important because many economists and money managers are already trying to predict what will happen in 2012 and give their investment advice based on that. This is very dangerous, since no one can predict the future.

Looking through some old articles, it is astonishing how wrong some of the big stock forecasts were. Just one of dozens of examples: Goldman Sachs, considered the most prestigious bank in the world, predicted that European stocks would rise 20 percent in 2011. While the year is not over, European stocks are down approximately 10 percent. Additionally, Europe looks like it is about to implode.

Full article here: The Safest Bet for 2012: Forget All the Predictions