The Safest Bet for 2012: Forget All the Predictions

The Safest Bet for 2012: Forget All the Predictions

The Safest Bet for 2012: Forget All the Predictions

My first of many on this topic.


This Tiger grand-cub was flat during Q2 but is ready for the return of volatility

Tiger Legatus Master Fund was up 0.1% net for the second quarter, compared to the MSCI World Index's 7.9% return and the S&P 500's 8.5% gain. For the first half of the year, Tiger Legatus is up 9%, while the MSCI World Index has gained 13.3%, and the S&P has returned 15.3%. Q2 2021 hedge Read More

At the end of every year, it is the peeve of every “expert” analyst to try and forecast what will happen next year. This applies to the field of politics, economics, world events and almost everything.

However, there is little accountability, and very few people examine whether any of the so-called experts are right.

Let’s remember some events which happened in 2011, which no one ever predicted: NATO would go to war against Libya, a massive tsunami would devastate Japan, there would be uprisings in many Arab countries, and Europe’s economy would be close to its death.

This is important because many economists and money managers are already trying to predict what will happen in 2012 and give their investment advice based on that. This is very dangerous, since no one can predict the future.

Looking through some old articles, it is astonishing how wrong some of the big stock forecasts were. Just one of dozens of examples: Goldman Sachs, considered the most prestigious bank in the world, predicted that European stocks would rise 20 percent in 2011. While the year is not over, European stocks are down approximately 10 percent. Additionally, Europe looks like it is about to implode.

Full article here: The Safest Bet for 2012: Forget All the Predictions

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