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2012 could be a make or break here for the US economy joining me now out of talk about the potential scenarios is Yale economics professor Robert — Welcome professor — Now back in September when you visit is — inside you present at a US recession in your — was likely. In light of improving economic data we’ve seen recently have you changed your view. I think there is — worry about a double dip recession. Still. Things have been looking better in the US. Not so much in Europe. Were related to the and and the developing world is not as strong as as we expected. So it’s not clear. I think it does does it looks less likely now but — still think there’s a risk of of a double dip recession what was placed on that. The quantitative models we have that would allies to put probability — finger based on a lot of those recessions but we’re in the biggest recession. Since the Great Depression. And I yeah I think I would like to brief stay is that whether we have a recession or not he’s not even the most important thing is whether we get out of this funk. We’re not in a recession now we’re supposedly in a recovery but we still have eight point 6% unemployment. I think is a good likelihood that we’ll go through years more of high unemployment whether or not — a recession. That’s the outlook right now it’s not disastrous it’s not the end of the world but. I think the government policy should be much more vigorous in the attacking this problem. You see high unemployment for years you say what about time the presidential elections stolen hover around eight point 6% that we have now. Well right now I mean these are good GDP growth and latest report in the personal savings rate is down people are spending that — Confidence is coming back a little bit so it’s possible that. The economy will be looking a little better now you know that would that would make for Obama had a good incumbents always benefit from that. — in some forecasters are you know are forecasting a strong economy but I still wary about the negative sides it’s it’s it’s. It’s because of Europe and it’s because of the fact it. That so many homeowners are underwater. They have negative network because their mortgage is greater than their house and home prices are still falling so it’s not. It’s not a rosy scenarios that that I see it for the next year in home prices are still — some economists forecast that it could go up next you don’t share and it. It the median economist forecast is for a home price increase but not a huge one. So they’re talking about 1% or so typically entries in home prices. You know I I don’t have any strong disagreement with — that’s reasonable scenario. But I think it may — a little bit more likely to see even further declines or almost out of time but lastly. Odds of the Fed coming with — three more on buying. They’ve been successful I think in bringing interest rates down. They would like to do something more they’re kind of out of ammunition right how. They could start another QE3. Whether whether they’ll do that I think it may be more likely that the of this something like. Inflation targeting. Or are more. Explicit forecast that the federal funds rate these are. These are kind of — marriages. And QE3 is a possibility — but these are going to be. Hero and and we may still be in for a recession even if they do all of those things. Plus the series our thanks to — economics professor Robert Schiller I’m Fred Katayama and this is what.
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