Prem Watsa Lecture At Richard Ivey School Of Business

H/T to my friend David

Prem Watsa, CEO of Fairfax Financial spoke on February 16, 2011 at the Ben Graham Center for Value Investing at the Richard Ivey School of Business. The video presentation was just posted recently.

His predictions seem even more accurate six months later.

Voss Capital is betting on a housing market boom

Housing MarketThe Voss Value Fund was up 4.09% net for the second quarter, while the Voss Value Offshore Fund was up 3.93%. The Russell 2000 returned 25.42%, the Russell 2000 Value returned 18.24%, and the S&P 500 gained 20.54%. In July, the funds did much better with a return of 15.25% for the Voss Value Fund Read More

Basically,  Prem Watsa looking for a Japan-type recession or slow growth until debt is worked off. Scary.
Talked about the property bubble in the US and how it was obvious how it was going to end.
Made an observation about the property bubble going on now in China. Sounded a lot like Florida
in 2007 – prices jumping and how a secretary he spoke with owned 4 apartments. Prices going
up 100% per year. Not likely to end well.

He wouldn’t really talk about stocks in his current portfolio.

Talked about JNJ and the idea that returns come from both earnings growth and PE expansion.
JNJ is trading at lowest PE in a very long time and earnings are still growing.

Full link below (no embed code):

Prem Watsa Lecture