Author: David Merkel

FOMC Transcript 2008

Redacted Version Of The April 2016 FOMC Statement

Redacted Version Of The April 2016 FOMC Statement by David Merkel, The Aleph Blog March 2016 April 2016 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a […]

Big Returns, Narrow Doors

Big Returns, Narrow Doors

  Photo Credit: Leslie Archard Every now and then, you will run across a mathematical analysis where if you use a certain screening, trading, or other investment method, it produces a high return in hindsight. And now, you know about […]

OPEC and Game Theory

OPEC and Game Theory

Most games in life are cooperative. Many are competitive. A few are perverse. That’s what the crude oil market is like today. It reminds me of the prisoner’s dilemma. In the prisoner’s dilemma, two parties that would benefit from cooperating […]

Estimating Future Stock Returns, Follow-up

Estimating Future Stock Returns, Follow-up

Estimating Future Stock Returns, Follow-up Idea Credit: Philosophical Economics Blog My most recent post, Estimating Future Stock Returns was well-received. I expected as much. I presented it as part of a larger presentation to a session at the Society of […]

Estimating Future Stock Returns

Estimating Future Stock Returns

Estimating Future Stock Returns Idea Credit: Philosophical Economics, but I estimated and designed the graphs There are many alternative models for attempting to estimate how undervalued or overvalued the stock market is. Among them are: Price/Book P/Retained Earnings Q-ratio (Market […]

Think Half of a Cycle Ahead

Think Half of a Cycle Ahead

  Photo Credit: Robert Tuck || Of course, in half a cycle here, the moon will look the same   Financial markets are trendy and noisy in the short-run, sensible in the long-run, and perverse in the intermediate-term. What do […]

If All Investments Were Private

If All Investments Were Private

  Photo Credit: Falcon® Photography || In this story, TSB stands for “The Storage Bank” This piece is another one of my experiments, please bear with me. “Measure Twice, Cut Once” — A very intelligent woman (I suspect) whose name […]

On a Letter from an Expatriate

On a Letter from an Expatriate

Photo Credit: Liz West A friend I haven’t heard from in many years since he left the USA wrote me. He closed the letter in an unusual way, saying: PS — USA has gone completely bonkers these days? or what […]

Laws are Only as Good as Enforcement

Laws are Only as Good as Enforcement

Photo Credit: Gerard Van der Leun || Personally, I would not have wanted my name on that law This should be short.  If you want more, you can read my old piece, “Who Dares Oppose a Boom?” Laws are only […]

Helicopter Money

Fly Away From Helicopter Money

Fly Away From Helicopter Money Photo Credit: Shiny Things || Apologies, this was the best I could find at Flickr with a Creative Commons License Once I wrote a piece advocating helicopter money, and I called it 2300 Smackers. For […]