Author: David Merkel

Brexit Boogeyman Bellows “Boo!”

Brexit Boogeyman Bellows “Boo!”

Picture Credit: Peanuts Reloaded || Roughly: “Perhaps today Brexit; Monday an exit from Italy or Spain; [then] Europe dismantles” =-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=- At a time like this, when the Brexit Boogeyman goes “Boo!” it’s time to take stock of the situation amid […]

Brexit Boogeyman

Brexit Boogeyman

Photo Credit: Gwydion M Williams || They do the Hokey Pokey ;) =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–= Investors need things to scare them, or they don’t have a normal life. This is kind of like the bachelor uncle who tells little nieces and nephews […]

Saudi Arabia: Reading Tea Leaves

Saudi Arabia: Reading Tea Leaves

  Photo Credit: Bahrain Ministry of Foreign Affairs =-=-=-=-=-=-=- Let me mention four posts that I did recently on energy issues: OPEC and Game Theory Fade High Price-Sensitivity Assets in Crude Oil We Still Have a Buck in the Till; […]

The Dead Model

The Dead Model

The Dead Model How Lucky Do You Feel? -=-=-=-=-=-=- Nine years ago, I wrote about the so-called “Fed Model.” The insights there are still true, though the model has yielded no useful signals over that time. It would have told […]

Fed Minutes

The Fed Minutes are Noise

The Fed Minutes are Noise I wasn’t surprised to hear in the FOMC minutes that members of the committee thought: For these reasons, participants generally saw maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent […]

Simple Stuff: What is Risk?

Simple Stuff: What is Risk?

Photo Credit: GotCredit This is another piece in the irregular Simple Stuff series, which is an attempt to make complex topics simple. Today’s topic is: What is risk? Here is my simple definition of risk: Risk is the probability that […]

Risk vs Return — The Dirty Secret

Risk vs Return — The Dirty Secret

I’m thinking of starting a limited series called “dirty secrets” of finance and investing. If anyone wants to toss me some ideas you can contact me here. I know that since starting this blog, I have used the phrase “dirty […]

You Can Get Too Pessimistic

You Can Get Too Pessimistic

Entire societies and nations have been wiped out in the past. Sometimes this has been in spite of the best efforts of leading citizens to avoid it, and sometimes it has been because of their efforts. In human terms, this […]