Author: David Merkel

Perceived Versus Real Risk Tolerance

Perceived Versus Real Risk Tolerance

Investment entities, both people and institutions, often say one thing and mean another with respect to risk.  They can keep a straight face with respect to minor market gyrations.  But major market changes leading to the possible or actual questioning […]

The Rule of K Vs Rule Of 72

The Rule of K Vs Rule Of 72

This is a small update of my last piece.  I wish that I had put this graph in that piece, because it completes it. Over the interest rate range of 0% to 30%, the average absolute deviations from perfect doubling […]

2.79% Annual Returns Ahead?

2.79% Annual Returns Ahead?

I lost this post once already, hopefully it will be better-written this time.  I’ve been playing around with the stock market prediction model in order to give some idea of how the actual results could vary from the forecasts. Look […]

Operating vs Financial Cash Flows

Operating vs Financial Cash Flows

I was at a CFA Baltimore board meeting, and we were talking before the meeting.  Most of us work for value investors, or, growth-at-a-reasonable-price investors.  One fellow who has a business model somewhat like mine, commented that all the money […]

The Permanent Portfolio – Pros And Cons

The Permanent Portfolio – Pros And Cons

I will admit, when I first read about the Permanent Portfolio in the late-80s, I was somewhat skeptical, but not totally dismissive.  Here is the classic Permanent Portfolio, equal proportions of: S&P 500 stocks The longest Treasury Bonds Spot Gold […]