CRECER 2016 – Nassim Taleb On Fragility

Don’t worry its in English

CRECER 2016 - Nassim Taleb On Fragility

0:15and as usual before we start out like to do a little test I was in moscow giving
0:25a workshop and the most translated as it is now and I was making cracking jokes
0:36and I noticed that people were serious child arrives at Rice leader did not
0:45translate my jokes I hope it’s not the same here as a translator
1:03we don’t have a clock so in the time so the next hour I’m gonna talk about
1:18anti-social and from there are about entrepreneurship how it connects but
1:29first let me explain how I got the idea of speciality I was an awesome trailer
1:38for a long time
1:39121 years as you can see I lost all my hair worried then after 21 years of
1:47trading I decided to have a life so I surround what do you do you know when
1:54you stop trading and unfortunately I’m not good at Tennessee chess board had
2:00bridge mad at you no stranger to you in the day so I ended up doing mathematics
2:06second career doing that trying to magnetize when I worked on before and my
2:12idea was to master thousand ocean of fragility based on an insight I had when
2:18I was an option trader which is that this is fragile
2:26why I wanted to answer that question
2:31I detected from my experience as an option cleaner that it was trying to
2:38show is because it had some kind of allergic reaction to volatility that was
2:44that was my speculation and wanted to check the southwest and once you man put
2:49his fragile than you can match the opposite of what life’s volatility while
2:55likes the Sun Cluster things and from there you can generalize the things and
2:59shine so but first let me tell you the other two people not the option traders
3:06when asked people what is the opposite of French and described fragile this
3:13breakable doesn’t want to be shaken it has a sign and you sending a package
3:20from western Mongolia to get the message that it should not be mishandled wanna
3:30ask people the opposite as they never tell me you know the right thing
3:36a specifically people give me that its robust the robustness not the opposite
3:43of fragile the robust you know doesn’t care is like people in New York
3:49Brookland they don’t care
3:51proves it on the great shots so then it hit me that we often traders had the
3:57name for things like volatility as opposite doesn’t like volatility and
4:03that back as I’m sending to Mongolia ok if it had the opposite opposite
4:10properties too fragile it would not be this it would be pleased mishandle on it
4:17you see please
4:20you know brutalized me as a package up to a point so came up with that idea now
4:26I was one or two years into my post rating life I’m slow so I started seeing
4:35hey you know perhaps I can such analyzing and it took me seven or eight
4:39years to finish the idea completely I’m slow actually I get there that there was
4:48an attribute to sayings that like disorders that like things and certain
4:53way and that one was very similar to packages we often traders had that like
5:01volatility so but when I go back to history I realize that the Greeks to
5:10effectively they may not have had the words
5:24as I said like you
5:26but it’s mostly known as represented by what means you shoot it comes back the
5:39way it was before
5:40not better not worse and of course a certain category we just discussed now
5:48when you look at financial packages they have the shape you make it make you make
5:56your make you make and then once in awhile he knows everything
6:01the picture is not your money so you just say hey you know it’s a mistake I
6:09want repeated but you keep your bonus or someone else’s money I repeated this is
6:13a fragile package sorry I’m not seeing anything here and someone who’s this I
6:18lost my sight so this is the fragile
6:25no upside or downside the second line an asshole not fragile this is in time
6:34series space and the third one is the answer is fragile as you can see small
6:42downside than upside the robust no big upside and downside of course the
6:51fragile small gains or no gain and big downside like the coffee cup not look at
7:00this you know I didn’t hear if there’s a
7:05quake doesn’t have an upside know so does like anything doesn’t like mistakes
7:11if I make a mistake handling it will break so from this we can generalize and
7:17look at a partnership thanks google translate another skilled
7:25helped a little bit but France so I call them the disorder others saw his shifty
7:32doom 3 I’d like to if you like one you like them all
7:36not widely adopted into effect in comp Plato conocimiento
7:44oportunidad house is the sort of the in like in Tokyo in camp or law this one as
7:56it does on impact or if you like one you like them all and you have to a point
8:05that you hate want to hit the mall and your fragile one
8:11incidentally is that why is it that when you don’t like this order is so then you
8:20don’t like time this time to explore this orders
8:26that’s it for example was time more things can happen so this coffee cup
8:32will not survive five thousand years from now
8:35probably will not be found but a stone outside
8:39will be there the way way is to now so now something that’s the property of
8:46everything organic the central idea in my book is that complex system and
8:56organic systems they love they love disorder why did you like the sort of
9:03remember you like stressors they communicate with their environment yes
9:08stressors so we have two paradigms the cat and washing machine and the central
9:17chapter is closed on the main difference between the cat and Washington people
9:25ask me why then I had this obscure titles to confuse journalists because
9:31you know I’m like Donald Trump you know I’d like to consider analysts so the
9:39year and also because of his to begin every the book just read the table of
9:43content and environment so I had that piece but there’s a central idea now
9:51what does that mean difference between a cat and washing machine that everything
9:55organic degrades
9:58under no flash please you see I’m fragile to flash flash flash so the
10:06concentration + attitude here you know so everything organic benefit from some
10:16kind of stressor whereas the washing machine if you go meet with a hammer on
10:23a washing machine will it improve know if you bank with your head on a washing
10:29machine will it improve know you handled improve the washing machine will not
10:35include and it’s a washing machine
10:40alone with a degraded not really ok maybe a little bit of oiling of the
10:49machinery so what happens with everything
10:52constructed top-down doesn’t like volatility everything made bottom-up
10:58loves disorder volatility stressors communications environments
11:03stressors so he saw the big mistake people make is to think of the economy
11:14as more like the washing machine then it is like a cat and the difference between
11:23the two is considering let me explain when you have if the economy constantly
11:34at the same level without any stressor

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