Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares have fallen dramatically since the company's disappointing earnings report earlier this month, analysts at Deutsche Bank say that’s a good thing for investors who want to get in on the stock. In a report issued today, they said that the stickiness of the iOS ecosystem isn't being reflected in the valuation of the company right now.
At this point shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) are trading at six times their enterprise value to free cash flow. Deutsche Bank analysts say this suggests investors are expecting a future structural decline in Apple’s “future cash generation and earnings.” They said they reiterated their Buy rating and $575 price target even though Apple’s earnings report was disappointing because they believe Apple's current customers will continue to buy the company's products.
The analysts believe there is a high degree of loyalty among Apple users, so they predict that consumers who currently own Apple products will upgrade to the company’s new models in the future. In addition they expect the company to keep growing its user base “over time,” which will increase the value of its shares.
Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) analysts addressed the questions some have about just how loyal iOS users are because of how rapidly competition is increasing. They believe that the main reason iOS users will continue to stay with Apple devices is because the cost of switching—both in money and time—is significant. As of December, users spent about $54 billion on iTunes, Accessories and the App store. There were also about 40 billion app downloads.
The analysts estimate that there have been about 100 apps downloaded per device at an average cost of $130 per device. Switching to a different platform would mean having to download and, in some cases, repurchase apps currently on the user’s Apple devices.
Shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) are up more than 2 percent in trading this afternoon.