Cryptocurrency holders have been in for a wild ride over the past several weeks, with the collapse of one of the world’s biggest exchanges FTX having a contagion effect on the industry. The price of most cryptocurrencies have fallen dramatically amid a market sell-off.
Back in October 2022, prior to the market crash, Finder surveyed 55 cryptocurrency industry specialists on their forecasts for Bitcoin and several altcoins over the coming months and years. Here we examine their forecasts for Solana, XRP and Shiba Inu and unpack their thoughts around the top issues impacting each coin.
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Solana Battles Against Network Outage Problems
Solana has experienced increased volatility over the past few weeks, with its price dropping upon news of the FTX collapse. At the time the panel was surveyed, they expected SOL to end the year at $35 and were optimistic about its long-term prospects, with an average forecast of $116 by 2025.
However, not everyone was so bullish – senior lecturer at the University of Canberra John Hawkins expects Solana will eventually go to $0.
“Solana has no fundamental value and largely tracks Bitcoin's price. Being PoS rather than PoW, it may outperform Bitcoin. But in the longer term, crypto will lose out to CBDCs,” he said.
CEO of Kalkine Group Kunal Sawhney didn’t provide a price forecast. However, he noted that the losses Solana sustained this year were not at all anticipated.
“This makes guessing SOL's future price trajectory a near impossible task at the moment. But one thing is certain, which is that the dip in SOL must have come as a major dampener for many cryptocurrency investors that were looking at these speculative assets as a so-called hedge against inflation.”
Solana has experienced several network outages and its CEO has said these are largely a byproduct of its low-cost transactions. However, the majority of panelists (78%) disagree - they think it's the result of a bigger problem.
Dion Guillaume, global head of PR and communication at Gate.io expected only moderate increases to Solana’s price and put this down to the network’s functionality.
“Solana has to improve its functionality and reliability. Otherwise, it will lose market share to Ethereum, Cardano and Avalanche,” he said.
Over a third of panelists (35%) thought the 15% price drop the Helium Network (HNT) experienced when it transitioned to Solana would deter other networks from making the same decision.
Overall, 33% of Finder’s panel thought it was time to buy SOL while 44% said it was time to hold. Only 22% of panelists thought it was time to sell Solana.
XRP Holding In The Balance Of Its Lawsuit With The SEC
XRP’s price hasn’t escaped the FTX contagion effect, with its price falling from around $0.45 to $0.38 since the crash. The platform is embattled in an ongoing lawsuit with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which isn’t expected to come to a resolution until some point in 2023.
The panel was very optimistic about XRP’s price if they manage to win the lawsuit while on average they only expect marginal increases if XRP loses.
Martin Froehler, CEO at Morpher, who thought it was time to buy XRP, said that if Ripple wins, “it's a huge win for the entire crypto industry.”
However, if Ripple loses, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse claims that they're willing to move to a different jurisdiction and 43% of Finder’s panel believe it’ll come to this. Just 26% think otherwise while the remaining 31% are unsure.
Unocoin Technologies CEO Sathvik Vishwanath is part of the 43% who says Ripple will eventually move jurisdictions, but believes it won’t be the end-all of XRP.
“[XRP] has responded well to market-wide price actions and all recent bull runs. Its average price even increased in March 2022. The outcome of the lawsuit will play a huge role in defining the future price movement of XRP. However, the coin has shown that it can still thrive despite all the bad press.”
Osom Finance CEO and co-founder Anton Altement doesn’t think Ripple will need to move jurisdiction and adds that the SEC lawsuit in itself isn’t a make-or-break situation.
“While the outcome of the lawsuit has an immediate impact on the price, on the whole it shouldn't. Even if they do lose and receive a fine, they'll likely be able to negotiate reasonable payment terms.
“Still, the overall bullish case is driven by the adoption of technology rather than transaction costs (which the SEC case ultimately is). The outcome of it won't lead to a make-or-break situation,” he said.
How Will The Shibarium Update Impact Shiba Inu’s Price?
It's not clear yet when the Shibarium update will be released but it’s rumored to be launched in late 2022. A quarter (25%) of the panel think the update will have a positive impact on SHIB’s price, 22% no impact, 3% a negative impact while half the panel (50%) is unsure.
Just over one in five panelists (22%) agree the update will lower transaction costs and 22% say it will increase transaction speed. However, one panelist thinks it’ll do neither while the bulk of the panel is unsure (69%).
FxPro senior analyst Alexander Kuptsikevich says Shibarium will both lower transaction costs and increase transaction speed.
“This is just one of many meme coins. It is unlikely to roar as it did in 2021, although it can ride the future waves of the crypto market,” he said.
Seasonal Tokens founder Ruadhan O thought SHIB’s price would remain flat for 2022 but that the SHIB stablecoin will be well-established by 2025 and help increase demand.
“... The price will follow the broader crypto market higher after the 2024 Bitcoin halving. The community is strong and the coin won't die due to lack of interest, because it has a social value which will maintain its market price.”
Just 9% of the panel say the SHIB stablecoin will do the most to increase SHIB adoption and a further 9% the Shibarium update. Meanwhile, 3% think the Doggy DAO and a further 3% think ShibaSwap 2.0 have the most adoption potential.
However, nearly one in five panelists (19%) don’t think any projects will increase SHIB adoption and more than half the panel are unsure (56%).