The Smart Money Has Never Been This Long The Long Bond by Bryce Coward, CFA, Gavekal Capital Blog
Back at the beginning of 2014 when commercial traders were net long nearly 40,000 options and futures contracts on the US long bond it marked the peak in yields and preceded a 13 month rally in bonds that took 30-year treasury rates from 4% to 2.25%. Just recently the commercial traders, AKA “smart money”, were net long about 61,000 contracts, or 50% more contracts than the peak in 2014. If recent history is any guide then a 1 handle on the 30-year treasury bond could be a reality!
