A lot of people are saying that we’re about to have a pullback. Right now we’re in a time where people don’t know if they should, should or shouldn’t have PTSD from 2018. They’re looking at a market and they’re going. “Oh, my God, it’s irrational.” A market could be as irrational as it was in 2018, 2019 or even 2020, when it went irrationally low and dipped hard out of nowhere during the lockdown-fueled crash to $3,000.
Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
People Are Waiting For A Correction In The Crypto Market
People are looking for a reason for the market to correct and go bearish. They are forgetting that we've only had one 30% percent correction so far during this run. We’ve had a couple smaller ones. But, in my opinion, we're just getting started. April has been traditionally the best month in crypto over the years. And the slow times that we've been seeing the last couple of weeks are just a breather before the next leg up.
In the meantime, BTC, ETH, and DOT have gone rangy. They’re preparing to spring load and shoot up in April through the summer. So, I truly believe the bull market has nine months or ten months left. There's a lot of money to be made and the people that think it's irrational are going to be shocked how much more irrational we're going to get before the end of the cycle.
From a fundamental perspective, there's a lot you can look at. You can look at how many ICOs are coming out, and how well those ICOs are doing. We can look at how many wallets are being created, how many people are holding one bitcoin, how many people are holding Ethereum, are there new wallets being added to Ethereum, and so on. We can look at lots of data and for a good fundamental perspective and overview. Then, I dive into the technicals and charts for a clear picture. From a charting perspective, I see there are very few signs suggesting we could turn bearish.
Positive Factors For Bitcoin
Last week, we had a small correction. Even if it had gone lower from there, I wouldn’t have been bothered. This market is irrational right now. There’s a lot of emotion. There’s a lot of factors. From stimulus on down, there are 50 factors that seem positive for bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The stimulus package, for instance, will pump markets. They’re printing money, and that money will go into assets that are not fiat. It will go into markets. Some of that will go into crypto. Everyone knows the more you print, the less valuable a currency becomes.
Beyond stimulus inflation, we also see there’s not been a proper retail FOMO yet. We’ve seen institutional FOMO, however, with MicroStrategy and Tesla purchasing crypto. Google is looking at crypto, Apple’s getting in with Apple Pay, and Visa and MasterCard are entering the space.
When you see these mass institutional pushes, but then your mom, brother or friends haven’t bought Bitcoin for the first time, then you know that we're not at that top yet. I tell my mom my best top signal is when her friends start telling her that they bought their first Bitcoin. That’ll be my signal that we’re at the top. They’ll come in at the end for the retail FOMO push.
We’re not there yet. We have a lot more to go. We're going to see similar stuff that we saw in the last bull run when it winds down. There still is not a lot of new money coming in at the retail level. When everyone is talking about how they’re into crypto now, that will be a tell: a quick ascension and blow off top is coming. Along the way, wait for the corrections and take profit, and buy the dips.
The market will be closer to $4 to $5 trillion. And it will be coming in the next eight, nine months, and then we'll see a new bear market starting probably in 2022. It may not be as long a bear market as our last one, but we're definitely going to see another one.
About the Author
Known as Coach K, Joel Kovshoff is an avid trading and financial coach known for his go-to-market strategies for early stage projects, creative tokenomics and a deep partnership network. He is found regularly on YouTube providing trading and review content as well as Ran Neuner from CNBC’s YouTube show Crypto Banter hosting several of the top Blockchain CEOs and Thought Leaders. Coach is the Co-founder of Academy for Capital Growth LLC, the CMO of AnrkeyX a DeFi Gaming project and is an advisor to the following projects, Ethernity, Splyt, FinXflo, Paid Network, and PlotX.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/coachkcrypto
Telegram: https://t.me/coachescorner
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/coachkcrypto/
