Q2 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
The Passing Of Ruth Bader Ginsburg Raises The Temperature
American political tensions were at a low boil earlier this month, when former Trump administration official Michael Anton warned of a coup. Reactions over the weekend to the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg suggest her death has raised heat. Below we’ll look at ways we can limit our risk as investors. First, here’s a quick sampling of some of the heated reactions.
Heated Reactions
RBG mourners in Manhattan fought with police who attempted to arrest them for blocking the street.
Former CNN host Reza Aslan was one of a number of Twitter celebrities threatening violence in the event Republicans replaced RBG.
U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut issued a vaguer threat; First Trust Avisors’ Deputy Chief Economist, Robert Stein wondered if the threat included a coup:
How about a coup?
On or off the table? https://t.co/IbXox1YbDE— Robert Stein (@BobStein_FT) September 19, 2020
Finally, liberal actor and activist Rob Reiner, after lamenting the loss of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, argued the November election was a matter of life and death.
We are at an existential crossroads. Whether we live or die actually depends on our vote.
— Rob Reiner (@robreiner) September 20, 2020
The Political Risk
A financial journalist asked me over the weekend what I thought the market reactions would be to a Trump or a Biden victory in November. That reminded me of concerns of left-leaning investors four years ago that Trump would be a disaster. As I wrote at the time, Corporate America would easily adapt to Trump’s economic policies.
Four years ago, telling rich left-leaning investors why they didn't need to fear Donald Trump getting elected. https://t.co/9kncUwyZ2c
— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) September 20, 2020
Similarly, today, the more salient question for the market is whether we will know who won on November 3rd. I suspect the least preferred outcome for the market will be a disputed election outcome. That would bring the prospect of America descending into worse political violence than what we’ve seen over the summer.
Limiting Your Risk
In the video below, I show a simple way you can limit market risk now. The video mentions concentration risk, but the hedges will also protect against market risk.
One point I suggestion I make in the video is to look at the nearest SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) options expiration date after the election: November 20th. As expected, the straight cost of the hedge expiring then was cheaper than that of one expiring six months out. Somewhat less expected was that the annualized cost of the November hedge was lower as well.
