“Davidson” submits:
[dalio variation=”hedge”]The story continues to be promoted of OPEC over-production while the EIA global data show balance has been present since Feb 2016. The production rise coincides with a rise in US inventories as US brought Days Supply vs Refinery Inputs from mid-20s to 30. The US has since stabilized either side of 30 Days Supply vs Refinery Inputs. Adding to inventories is part of the Consumption figure.
The facts remain that the US has had a substantial rise in refining and export of higher-valued refined products. The US raised inventories to ensure steady supply. Global Prod/Cons is now in balance but the story of excess production persists.
Going forward US inventories should rise apace of refined product exports now that a higher level of inventories has been established.
Rarely does the consensus get the actual story correct and a mythological view of how the world works becomes part of perception.
