Global Equity Internals: We Haven’t Seen These Readings Since 2011 by Steven Vannelli, CFA, Gavekal Capital Blog
Highlights
- The majority of our technical indicators are exhibiting readings not seen since the fall of 2011.
- Currently only 10% of developed market stocks and 9% of emerging markets stocks are above the 50-day moving average. Performance is still tilted in favor of developed companies over emerging. In the developed world 51% of stocks are outperforming the MSCI World Index while only 29% of emerging markets stocks are outperforming.
- Over the last 50 days in the developed world 5 stocks fell for every stock that rose. In the emerging markets, the ratio is 10:1, where 10 stocks fell for every 1 that rose. The selling has been indiscriminate.
- Stocks, both developed and emerging, have been in a statistical slump with less than 50% of the last 50 trading days having been up days. Specifically, in the developed world 44% of trading days have been up days while only 42% of trading days have been up days in the emerging markets
- In the developed world 75% of stocks are down more than 10% from 3-month highs, while in the emerging markets 89% of stocks are in down more than 10% from 3-month highs.
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