2020 has been a challenging year. We ache for some peace and comfort. Christmas is right before the door, but that can be a challenge as well. Trips to the mall are not without risk and for many, this year had its economic challenges as well. Why not in times like these preserve the wealth and instead of clothes that get out of fashion, toys one outgrows and gadgets that get outdated give the gift of silver coins. A Silver lining in difficult times.
Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
We spoke all year of physical Silver accumulation and have caught cheap entry spots shared in real-time in our free Telegram channel. Two weeks ago we forecasted a temporary drop in the precious metal sector, which has manifested. In our opinion quite possibly the last cheap entry point for the physical accumulation of the valuable commodity, that could provide more for your family than just a temporary joy. A gift that will be remembered that you had the foresight for a necessary transition from an unstable fiat currency to a wealth preserving gift that keeps giving for years to come in value appreciation.
The above might sound like a cheap sales commercial but we are not sellers, we don’t profit from your choice to buy Silver, we truly believe in the value of Silver and give this gift to our own families this year.
Silver, Monthly Chart, Why So Bullish?
Silver in US Dollar, monthly chart as of December 3rd, 2020
What makes us so bullish over the long run? Examining the monthly chart above, you will find a seasonal pattern over the last eight years that held steady even in our non-typical year 2020. Prices each year in November declined like clockwork (+preceding months). More importantly, are the numbers from these November lows to February highs (marked in yellow). This edge allows for the long term market participant an entry edge to reduce risk. Paired with our quad exit strategy it is a way to “get in” and eliminate risk by taking partial profits in this “odds stacked” three-month period.
Averaging the prior advances we get a percentage of +13.81%. Projecting this onto this year’s November lows a target of US$24.91 results as an initial thrust probability for a longer-term trade. Let us add an important fact that all prior percentages were calculated Silver trading in a sideways range. As such this year’s projection can be much higher because Silver is now in an uptrend.
Silver, Daily Chart, Planned And Executed Like Clockwork:
Silver in US Dollar, daily chart as of December 4th, 2020
Besides reloading our physical holdings, we also initiated based on the prior chart edge, among others, a larger turning point trade on November 30th. As usual, we posted this entry in real-time on our free Telegram channel. We expected this day to print November lows. We also anticipated this move already two weeks prior as stated in the weekly chartbook at that time.
As the prior monthly chart shows, there were occasions when December still brought lower lows. For the shorter term player, this is meaningful. From a daily position trade perspective (see daily chart above), one could get stopped out with the rest position and reentry would be required. As of now partial profits assure a profitable trade with a stop at break even entry levels. Prices sit right at a meaningful Volume analysis spot (POC) (red horizontal line). We are also trading at the mean (blue dotted line, which allows expansion of price in either direction). As such the market is waiting for a news item to find its next short-term directional move.
Silver, Weekly Chart, No One Knows The Future:
Silver in US Dollar, weekly chart as of December 3rd, 2020
Even though, no one knows the future and we do not have a crystal ball either, one can stack the odds in one’s favor. This trade shows that this doesn’t have to be elusive but merely requires exploiting stacked odds with discipline. The weekly chart shows a healthy, mild retracement after a steep trend up. With our entry price of US$21.93 on November 30th, we already had an advancing move by nearly ten percent. We financed this trade based on our quad exit philosophy and as such are now in a risk-free, profitable position with the remainder position size.
Probability points toward a likelier possibility to reach the other side of the sideways range and possibly beyond. Large time frame analysis creates a picture for Silver shining for many years to come.
A Silver Lining In Difficult Times
Typically, Christmas is a huge expense. Giving the gift of Silver, you also comfort yourself since you preserve family wealth. Our recommendation isn’t based on nostalgia or otherwise romantic sentiment. We believe that price levels of Silver trading near US$24 right now are for many years to come a low level. We believe that physical acquisition here is a true bargain. One could speculate this precious metal heading towards three-digit numbers.
We post real time entries and exits for the silver market in our free Telegram channel.
If you like to get regular updates on our gold model, precious metals and cryptocurrencies you can subscribe to our free newsletter.
About the Author: Korbinian Koller
Outstanding abstract reasoning ability and ability to think creatively and originally has led over the last 25 years to extract new principles and a unique way to view the markets resulting in a multitude of various time frame systems, generating high hit rates and outstanding risk reward ratios. Over 20 years of coaching traders with heart & passion, assessing complex situations, troubleshoot and solve problems principle based has led to experience and a professional history of success. Skilled natural teacher and exceptional developer of talent. Avid learner guided by a plan with ability to suppress ego and empower students to share ideas and best practices and to apply principle-based technical/conceptual knowledge to maximize efficiency. 25+ year execution experience (50.000+ trades executed) Trading multiple personal accounts (long and short-and combinations of the two). Amazing market feel complementing mechanical systems discipline for precise and extreme low risk entries while objectively seeing the whole picture. Ability to notice and separate emotional responses from the decision-making process and to stand outside oneself and one’s concerns about images in order to function in terms of larger objectives. Developed exit strategies that compensate both for maximizing profits and psychological ease to allow for continuous flow throughout the whole trading day. In depth knowledge of money management strategies with the experience of multiple 6 sigma events in various markets (futures, stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds) embedded in extreme low risk statistical probability models with smooth equity curves and extensive risk management as well as extensive disaster risk allow for my natural capacity for risk-taking.
