The CBOE VIX or volatility index has ground down to very low levels, and as noted in the recent S&P500 #ChartStorm a series of signals and indicators are starting to light up that say the VIX is too low and is unlikely to stay low. Something I thought I would add to the mix here is the historical seasonal patterns for the VIX. In this case we are just talking about the level as rate of change doesn’t really make a great deal of sense for something that is mean reverting and relatively stationary. The bottom line is, if you ignore all other data and info, the historical seasonal pattern would suggest that volatility could actually go lower from here! In face it’s not until the second half of the year that you seasonally tend to see a rise in the VIX. Something to think about… not a base case, but probably goes against consensus.
The VIX is so far tracking along in a range, similar to what it does seasonally – however if history is anything to go by it could go even lower from here!
The chart below provides a seasonal map for both the S&P500 and the VIX.
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