Brazil’s October Trade Data Just Crushed 1Q17 Growth Prospects

Brazil’s October Trade Data Just Crushed 1Q17 Growth Prospects

Brazil’s trade data in October was abysmal. Exports fell 10.2% year-over-year to $13.721 billion and imports fell 15% year-over-year to $11.375 billion. Through the first 10 months of the year Brazil recorded a $38.5 billion trade surplus which is the highest trade surplus on record going back to the start of the series in 1989.

Thanks to our friends at we can see approximately how much this will affect 4Q16 and 1Q17 GDP. And boy does it affect it. The disappointing trade data lowered the year-over-year change in 4Q16 to -157 bps from -79 bps and it lowered the year-over-year change in 1Q17 from +17 bps to -101 bps. There was some hope that 1Q17 GDP would finally grow on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 1Q14. However, with these disappointing trade figures out we will have to see a significant surprise to the upside for most, if not all, economic data points for this to happen.


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