The NBA finals are upon us, a repeat of the 2017 finals in which the Warriors dominated the overwhelmed Cavaliers. This year may prove a similar outcome. Out of curiosity, given that there are at most only 4 more wins […]
Author: Roger Harrison
Funny How Inflation in 2018 Requires the Fed to Act, but Not in 2012
This week we gained two pieces of inflation information – the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Both measures provide insight into where inflation has been in recent months. Overall, the CPI came in at +2.4% […]
Everyone Keeps Saying Wages are Too Low – You’re All Wrong
It’s jobs week. And this week’s jobs figure and unemployment rate stat could move the markets more than most. The market expects the month-over-month jobs figure to come in at 193k, a rebound from the weak 103k in March. Should […]
The Yield Curve Moving Above 3% Isn’t That Big of a Deal At All For The S&P 500
Unbeknownst to no one, the yield curve bumped above 3 percent this past week. The “psychologically” important threshold hasn’t spooked the s&p 500 (yet?), but the news hasn’t been met by the market as a grand achievement. Since moving above 3 […]
Looking at The Global Consumer – The Next Recession Will Likely Stem from China, Not the United States
If you’re a follower of geopolitics, you know that Americans get blamed for the 2008 global financial crisis. In postulating at what might cause the next recession, there’s a good chance that China could be the initiation point. Here’s a […]
If GDP Growth Is 3% Over The Next Ten Years, The Income Tax Revenue Actually Rises By $544 Billion
This past week the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their budget projections for FY 2018 through FY 2028. The budget projections include a host of assumptions on things like GDP growth, potential GDP growth, interest rates, employment, revenues, and expenditures, […]
Why Is It So Hard to See a Recession Around the Corner? Here Are Two Reasons
If you’re in any way interested in the business cycle, you know that markets have received an inordinate amount of chatter about a recession on the near horizon. Although some analysts give reasons that don’t have to do with a […]
Trump vs. Obama – A First Year Comparison Of Wages And Job Data
We’re now a little over one year into Trump’s presidency, giving us some initial indication of how well things are going. Here’s a look at how the labor market has performed during the first year of both presidents’ administrations. Employment […]
How Much Longer Until the Next Recession? Housing Starts Says Not Until 2022
The Housing Starts and Building Permits figures came in relatively decent. Building Permits exhibited the largest jump, going from -2% in April to +25% year-over-year in May. The jump paints a positive picture for a summer of strong housing market […]
Could the Resource Curse Come to the U.S.? First Time Since 1974 the U.S. is #1
British oil giant BP Plc released its state of the world energy report today. Among the fascinating insights in the report is the rapid rise of American oil production. For the first time since 1974, oil production by businesses operating […]
