The Fed Has A Party Bias, But Question Is How Well They Hide It?
Unless a rock has subsumed you, you’re aware of the battle between President Trump and the Federal Reserve. Does President Trump have a point? Is…
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Wonder Why The Younger Generation Is Unhappy? Part Of It Is Because They Have To Move To Big Cities.
Hotly debated among demographers today is the happiness of the younger generation. Some analysts point to lower income. Others point to the decline of marriage. …
Housing Has The Recession At Least 3 Years Off
Housing took center stage this past week. Housing starts, new and existing home sales, and Case-Shiller home prices gave us an idea of what the…
Is Trump the Best Economic Growth President Ever? Yuge (Global) GDP Analysis
The question is a bit of a misnomer. Economic growth was much stronger during, for example, the wild, wild west days. But, is Trump the…
Inflation Is Close To The 3% Deleterious Level For Stocks
The longer inflation remains subdued, the longer this expansion lasts. The question here is simple – Are equities over- or undervalued with current inflation values? …
The NBA’s Chumps and Wise Ones
The NBA finals are upon us, a repeat of the 2017 finals in which the Warriors dominated the overwhelmed Cavaliers. This year may prove a…
Funny How Inflation in 2018 Requires the Fed to Act, but Not in 2012
This week we gained two pieces of inflation information – the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Both measures provide insight…
Everyone Keeps Saying Wages are Too Low – You’re All Wrong
It’s jobs week. And this week’s jobs figure and unemployment rate stat could move the markets more than most. The market expects the month-over-month jobs…
The Yield Curve Moving Above 3% Isn’t That Big of a Deal At All For The S&P 500
Unbeknownst to no one, the yield curve bumped above 3 percent this past week. The “psychologically” important threshold hasn’t spooked the s&p 500 (yet?), but the…
Looking at The Global Consumer – The Next Recession Will Likely Stem from China, Not the United States
If you’re a follower of geopolitics, you know that Americans get blamed for the 2008 global financial crisis. In postulating at what might cause the…
If GDP Growth Is 3% Over The Next Ten Years, The Income Tax Revenue Actually Rises By $544 Billion
This past week the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their budget projections for FY 2018 through FY 2028. The budget projections include a host of…
Why Is It So Hard to See a Recession Around the Corner? Here Are Two Reasons
If you’re in any way interested in the business cycle, you know that markets have received an inordinate amount of chatter about a recession on…
Trump vs. Obama – A First Year Comparison Of Wages And Job Data
We’re now a little over one year into Trump’s presidency, giving us some initial indication of how well things are going. Here’s a look at…
How Much Longer Until the Next Recession? Housing Starts Says Not Until 2022
The Housing Starts and Building Permits figures came in relatively decent. Building Permits exhibited the largest jump, going from -2% in April to +25% year-over-year…
Could the Resource Curse Come to the U.S.? First Time Since 1974 the U.S. is #1
British oil giant BP Plc released its state of the world energy report today. Among the fascinating insights in the report is the rapid rise…