In simple terms, everyone has moved to the same side of the boat when it comes to expectations about the prospects of emerging market stocks. Not since the financial crisis nadir in stock prices have analysts of Emerging Markets stocks been so bearish and quick to rerate expectations. Yet, amid all this negativity, there arises a fantastic opportunity for investors of EM stocks. As the famous Warren Buffet axiom states, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”. To say that analysts are fearful would be an understatement. It could be that market expectations for EM stocks have moved to far negative and now could be an opportune time to increase exposure to this hated asset class. Enough commentary, let’s get to the charts.
The first two charts below show the sales (first chart) and EPS (second chart) growth expectations for EM stocks. The blue line is the average stock’s growth expectation and the red line is the median stock’s growth expectation. Expectations for the next twelve months of growth have not been this low and falling since the market thought the world was going to implode in 2009.
In August, Mohnish Pabrai took part in Brown University's Value Investing Speaker Series, answering a series of questions from students. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more One of the topics he covered was the issue of finding cheap equities, a process the value investor has plenty of experience with. Cheap Stocks In the Read More
The next two charts show the percent of issues with higher sales (first chart) and EPS (second chart) expectations versus three months ago. These charts show for how many companies expectations are improving. The bottom line is that expectations are improving for the smallest percent of companies since the fall of 2008 when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.
Surely no one knows what the future holds and that is why investing is a game of probabilities. It seems to us the probability that expectations for EM stocks to be lower in six months time than they are now is slim.