Everybody Expects A 1999-Style ‘Melt Up’

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing that everybody expects a 1999-style ‘melt up’.

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Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

A 1999-Style Melt Up Is Likely

1) My colleague Enrique Abeyta has been pounding the table since March that the market is going higher – and he has been 100% right so far.

Michael Mauboussin’s 10 Attributes of Great Investors [Pt.1]

michael mauboussin, Credit Suisse, valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, decision making, skill versus luck, value investing, Legg Mason, The Success Equation, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, analysts, behavioral finance, More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, academics , valuewalkIn 2016, Michael J. Mauboussin completed his 30th year on Wall Street. The analyst, who was working at Credit Suisse at the time, decided to celebrate by reflecting on the ten attributes of great investors he had observed over the previous three decades. He published his ideas in a report in August 2016. I've summarised Read More


He's also on record saying he thinks a 1999-style "melt up" is likely going forward, and just sent me some fascinating charts about this from The Market Ear, with the following comments:

My view about the coming melt-up is no longer as out-of-consensus as it once was.

I still think it's going to happen... but if you're going to play for a melt-up, you'd better be ready for some volatility and be ready to stick it through. Many stocks could be down 10% before going up 50%.

Thank you, Enrique!

(By the way, our other colleague Berna Barshay agrees with him – noting that "Bullishness is very consensus now. Shorts are weary.")

Here are the seven charts Enrique sent me:

stock market

stock market

stock market

stock market

stock market

1999 Style Melt Up

1999 Style Melt Up