What Could Cause the Next Recession Here in the U.S.? Look Abroad, Says Dan Celia
PHILADELPHIA—Nationally syndicated host and biblical investing authority Dan Celia says there is some doubt about what will be the pivotal cause of the next recession here in America.
Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
ADW Capital’s 2020 letter: Long CDON, the future Amazon of the Nordics
ADW Capital Partners was up 119.2% for 2020, compared to a 13.77% gain for the S&P 500, an 11.17% increase for the Russell 2000, and an 8.62% return for the Russell 2000 Value Index. The fund reports an annualized return of 24.63% since its inception in 2005. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Read More
Euro threats to the US?
“It will likely come out of the international markets,” he says, “and more specifically, from the banking or financial sector. There’s a strong chance that the next American recession will come out of the Eurozone. I believe this is the reason why it’s critically important that the U.S. Department of Commerce has ongoing relationships and conversations with the E.U. Substantial trade deals might be what prevents a national crisis in the American economy. It would certainly be in America’s best interest to consider how important it is for Eurozone’s economy to grow. Understand that the only way that growth will happen is through significant trade increases. That will hopefully come from American interest and not the prerogative of rogue regimes and communist nations.”
In many situations, Celia continued, the U.S. has done a great job isolating the economy from including some global concerns which could cause the next recession.
“Our economy has been incredibly resilient,” he said. “One of the most incredible things we’ve seen economically in 2018 and 2019 is the ability to withstand events that could have brought a prolonged negative effect on the markets. America has remained safe from slow-downs from the global economy, inflation and political events, both here at home and abroad. We have also watched the Eurozone do what they do so well—ignore events such as bailouts from one the largest banks in the E.U. and a financial system that is growing weaker as its economy grows stagnant. If we don’t see some solid growth in the E.U. and a U.S. trade deal that could boost those markets, I would expect to see the destruction of a system that will have a significant contingent effect on the U.S economy.”
Corporate debt to cause the next recession?
Therefore, concerns remain about the growth of U.S. corporate debt, along with America’s national debt, which continues to grow astronomically.
“I believe the debt crisis could rear its ugly head a bit sooner than what any reasonable projections might show,” Celia said. “GDP growth is necessary and will help the country escape any downward spirals. Still, we have to consider what could happen internationally, and we must to take into account that growth alone won’t solve the problems. There must be both private sector and government attention made to deleveraging, efficiencies, effectiveness and cost-consciousness.
“Simply put,” Celia concluded, “we need to cut the size of government and logical deleveraging of corporate America NOW. Let’s make this happen while we have a president that can get it done. Keep in mind this is just the start—the installment of these things will go a long way to delay a crisis.”
Celia discusses these and other global and economic headlines on his daily, three-hour “Financial Issues” program, heard on more than 660 radio stations and several television networks nationwide.
