Gundlach: Growth Slows Despite Massive Debt Ramp

DoubleLine Asset Allocation webcast slides for the month of May 2019, hosted by Jeffrey Gundlach.

TAB I- Global Overview

G4 Central Banks’ Balance Sheets

G4 Central Banks Balance Sheets

Fed = Federal Reserve, BOJ = Bank of Japan, ECB = European Central Bank, BOE=Bank of England

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Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

G4 Central Banks’ Balance Sheets & Global Equites

G4 Central Banks Balance Sheets

Fed = Federal Reserve, BOJ = Bank of Japan, ECB = European Central Bank, BOE=Bank of England

U.S. Outperformed the Rest of the World

Gundlach

Source: Goldman Sachs as of September 4, 2018

U.S. = S&P 500 Index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. MSCI ACWI Index is a free‐float weighted equity index for developed and emerging market countries (ex‐US). EPS = Earnings per share. You cannot invest directly in an index.

S&P 500 vs. MSCI ACWI (ex‐US) Normalized 1/26/18

Gundlach

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

U.S. = S&P 500 Index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization. MSCI ACWI Index is a free‐float weighted equity index for developed and emerging market countries (ex‐US). You cannot invest directly in an index.

Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse Near Lows

Gundlach

Source: DoubleLine, Bloomberg

DoubleLIne Core Fixed Income Fund and DoubleLIne Flexible Income Fund own 0% of Deutsche Bank and 0% of Credit Suisse as of October 31, 2018.

Gross Domestic Product – Real and Nominal

Gundlach

Source: Bloomberg

YoY ‐ year‐over‐year; GDP = Gross Domestic Product includes the total amount of goods and services produced within a given country. Nominal GDP is adjusted for inflation. You cannot invest directly in an index.

U.S. Outstanding Debt by Sector

G4 Central Banks Balance Sheets

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

FOF = Financial Accounts of the United States, Federal Reserve Bank

Federal Spending and Revenue as a Share of U.S. GDP

G4 Central Banks Balance Sheets

Source: DoubleLine, Bloomberg, Office of Management and Budget

GDP: Gross Domestic Product is the amount of goods and services produced within a given country.

U.S. Total Public Debt Outstanding

G4 Central Banks Balance Sheets

Source: DoubleLine, Bloomberg

GDP: Gross Domestic Product is the amount of goods and services produced within a given country.

U.S. Government Debt to GDP

DoubleLine

Source: Bloomberg, DoubleLine

GDP = Gross Domestic product is the amount of goods and services produced within a given country.

See the full slides below.




About the Author

Jacob Wolinsky
Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Prior to ValueWalk, Jacob was VP of Business Development at SumZero. Prior to SumZero, Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver