Shortseller: No New Tesla With A $7500 U.S. Tax Credit

Stanphyl Capital letter for the month of January 2019 discussing their short position in Tesla stock and Model 3 price difference as the company lost access to the $7500 U.S. tax credit.

$7500 U.S. Tax Credit

Blomst / Pixabay

We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. As a reminder, the three core points of our Tesla short position are:

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Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc

1) Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully or sustainably proprietary.

2) Tesla will again soon be losing a lot of money and has a terrible balance sheet despite relatively light competition, but is about to be confronted with massive competition in every aspect of its business.

3) Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.

In January Tesla reported an (unaudited) Q4 2018 GAAP profit of $139 million that (as anticipated) was considerably smaller than Q3’s never-to-be-topped and highly misleading (as explained in previous letters) figure of $312 million, and now (as ASPs decline and service expenses soar) the company shall slide back into losses. (I explain why below.) The conference call was filled with so much hilarity that it’s hard to pick a favorite example, but this quote from Elon Musk could be the winner…

“The demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It's just like people literally don't have the money to buy the car. It's got nothing to do with desire. They just don't have enough money in their bank account.”

…and there were so many lies and obfuscations that the call must be heard to be believed (especially the surprise ending in which the CFO quits), but the key takeaway from the earnings press release is that the growth story is over, with Tesla guiding on the low end (the only end it ever even sometimes hits) to selling a total of 360,000 cars in 2019, representing zero-growth over the annualized pace of Q4 2018’s 90,000, while shrinking capex to an unsustainable level for any meaningful growth; thus, Tesla is now just another car company with a busted growth story.

Now here’s why Tesla will revert to losses for 2019: the company guided to a (desperately needed, based on currently awful customer service) opex increase of "less than 10%" in '19. Let's say it's 9% x the 2018 number of $4.43 billion = $400 million = $100 million/quarter. As noted above, Tesla also guided to annualized unit sales equal to those of Q4 2018, which had net income of $139 million. So before adjusting 2019 income for the far fewer (vs. Q4 2018) GHG credits that will be earned (due to far more sales overseas, where those credits aren’t earned), we derive just $39 million/quarter in 2019 earnings. However, after Q4 2018’s $94 million in GHG credits are halved (due to more sales overseas), that profit will be wiped out completely.

However, it's my (and many others’) opinion (based on terrible January U.S. demand and apparent weakness in European and Chinese orders) that Tesla will deliver far fewer than 360,000 cars this year- somewhere in the neighborhood of 250,000 is possible (including 3,S, & X), and I thus expect Tesla to revert to a massive GAAP loss of somewhere around $1 billion.

In fact, Tesla has hit such a demand wall (thanks in part to the January 1 halving of its $7500 U.S. tax credit, which is halved again in July and disappears at year-end) that it ended 2018 with many thousands of unsold cars in U.S. inventory and thus in January cut the Model 3’s price by $2000 and the 100kWh Models S&X by a massive $11,000 (while very slightly limiting their range via software) and eliminated the popular 75kWh models completely… Goodbye S/X volume and margins!

As a harbinger of the competitive forces to come for Tesla’s profitable high-end models, 2018 S&X sales in Europe would have been down 16% without the pull-forward demand from an expiring Netherlands tax break…

Tesla

… and this was with just a few months of competition from Jaguar’s beautiful new i-Pace and before this year’s arrival of superior luxury EVs from Audi, Mercedes and Porsche (discussed below).

I’ve always argued that TSLA bulls are confusing “luxury electric car love” for “Tesla love,” and now that superior European alternatives are beginning to roll out, Tesla drivers will flock to them. Among those relatively near-term alternatives (out in late 2019) is the Porsche Taycan (here’s a great new video of it), and according to Porsche’s surveys it’s Tesla drivers who are most interested in buying it. After its U.S. tax credit price advantage over Tesla (whose credits will be gone at the end of 2019), the stunning, Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Taycan will cost approximately the same as the least expensive Tesla Model S and, among innumerable other advantages, will charge 2 ½ times as quickly and, in the U.S., include three years of that charging as part of the purchase price. Hmm, Tesla or Porsche… Not a tough choice! In January Porsche announced that it has the capacity to build 40,000 Taycans a year, roughly the expected number of 2019 Model S sales before the Taycan steps in to steal pretty much all of them in 2020. In other words, Model S sales are about to be *so* dead.

The Taycan is just part of an onslaught of luxury EV competition about to rip the face off sales of Tesla’s most profitable models, the S&X. In March in Europe and April in the U.S. comes the Audi e-tron, an all-electric SUV with a much nicer interior (and better build quality!) than any Tesla and a price that’s around $13,000 lower than the Model X before the Audi’s (initial) $3750 to (eventual) $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage. (In fairness, the Audi’s range is expected to come in at around 220 miles vs. 270 miles for the X, but the Audi will charge faster.) The Audi received solid reviews (here, here, here and here), and three more electric Audis will follow the e-tron: the Sportback in late-2019 and, in 2020, the spectacular e-tron GT that recently debuted at the L.A. Auto show, as well as (in 2020) a small electric crossover.

Available immediately is the Jaguar I-Pace (which received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison test after comparison test) and costing $18,000 less than the Model X and $15,000 less than the Model S, price gaps that widen by an additional $3750 with Jaguar’s current U.S. tax credit advantage and escalate to $7500 in January 2020. I’ve driven the Jaguar and can assure you that no objective person will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.

The Mercedes EQC all-electric SUV will be available in Europe in mid-2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range of around 225 miles and a price that will be around $25,000 (!) less than the Model X before the Mercedes’ $7500 U.S. tax credit advantage! And by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.

And let’s not count out BMW; here’s a fascinating interview with its head EV powertrain engineer and a preview of its upcoming 2021 i4.

Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7500 U.S. tax credit. I expect these cars to have an immediate and severely negative impact on sales of Tesla’s Model 3 and a future severely negative impact on Tesla’s so-far unseen Model Y small crossover (assuming, of course, the latter makes it to market before Tesla declares bankruptcy).

Many people argue that “truly massive” Model 3 demand will be unleashed if Tesla offers a shorter-range, lower-priced version in late 2019 or early 2020; here’s why I think that’s wrong: first, I can’t see any way that a short range (approximately 220-mile) base car can be priced at less than $39,000 (without losing money) vs. Tesla’s original promise of $35,000 (before Tesla’s $1200 delivery charge). But Tesla is now choking on U.S. inventory of its “medium range” 264-mile Model 3 at a price $44,000 which—after its $3750 tax credit—costs the buyer only around $40,000. Yet in January 2020—soon after a $39,000 Model 3 might be introduced—that tax credit goes away completely, therefore making the base car’s (presumed) net cost to the buyer only $1000 less than the medium-range car for which demand has nearly evaporated despite 44 additional miles of range! The real mass-market Model 3 demand was for a $35,000 car with a $7500 tax credit—a fictional product that Musk lied about to do massive capital raises in 2016 and 2017.

Meanwhile, the Model 3 continues to reveal itself to be a complete lemon (one that’s particularly disastrous in the winter), with the latest survey from True Delta ranking it dead last among all available vehicles. And in September British magazine What Car? ranked overall Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own. And speaking of lemons, although the latest Consumer Reports survey doesn’t have enough Model 3 data to provide a reliability estimate other than “average,” it downgrades the Model S to “worse than average” and thus “unacceptable” while the Model X is once again rated “much worse than average” and makes the “coveted” “10 Least Reliable Cars” list.

Meanwhile the number of lawsuits of all types against Tesla continue to escalate (there are now over 500!), as does the number of executive departures (here’s the astounding full list).

And finally, here’s a January headline from a Bloomberg story that perfectly captures this semi-Ponzi scheme of a company:

That story derived from “groundbreaking day” of Tesla’s (so far unfinanced) Chinese factory, during which Musk blatantly lied about how long it would take to get things up and running, promising mass production by late 2019 while the site is a dirt field and anyone in the industry can tell you that—even in fast-moving China—it takes at least two years to build a new auto plant and install and calibrate the assembly line equipment, and that rapid timeframe is only for a company that knows what it’s doing, which Tesla most certainly does not.

So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…

THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR I‑PACE

2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship

Audi e-tron electric SUV is available early 2019

Audi e-tron Sportback comes late 2019

AUDI E-TRON GT FIRST DRIVE: LOOK OUT, TESLA (available 2020)

Audi to show new baby e-tron electric SUV at Geneva 2019

Mercedes unveils the 2019 EQC Electric SUV

Mercedes to launch 10 all-electric models by 2022

The 2019 Porsche Electric Taycan

Porsche Electric Mission E Cross Turismo goes into series production

Porsche Aims At Tesla Again With An Electric SUV, Taycan Targa and Possible Boxster EV

258-Mile Hyundai Kona electric arrives early 2019 for under $40,000

240-Mile Kia Niro EV Arrives January 2019 at Under $40,000

The 2020 Kia Soul EV Is More Powerful Than Before and Has 260-mile Range

Kia Europe to have six pure electric models by 2022

Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge
GM is transforming Cadillac into an electric brand

VW to spend $50.2 billion on electric, autonomous vehicles by 2023

Here's how Volkswagen plans to turn itself into the world's largest EV maker

VW Is Planning $21,000 Subcompact E-Car to Challenge Tesla

Nissan LEAF e+ with 226-mile range arrives April 2019

Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020

Volvo Polestar 2: 350-mile range, £30,000 starting price

Volvo To Start Selling Electric Trucks In 2019, Some Will Hit The Road This Year

BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020

BMW i4 confirmed for production in 2021 with 435-mile range

BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025

Ford CEO says 16 electric models are in design & development

Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019

Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s

Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe

Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021

DS 3 Crossback will give PSA's upscale brand an electric boost

ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019

Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020

SEAT's first electric car is due in 2020

Opel/Vauxhall will launch electric SUV and van in 2020

2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand's first all-electric model

Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models

New Citroen C4 Cactus to be first electrified Citroen in 2020

MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020

Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati

Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022

Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022

Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025

Bentley mulls electric car to help reduce carbon footprint

Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021

Ssangyong e-SIV concept previews 2020 EV

Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan

Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production

Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar

Rivian launches all-electric 7-seat SUV with over 410 miles of range

Rivian Automotive's electric pickup breaks cover

Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years

SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range

Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon

Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production

EVelozcity Raises $1 billion For EV Startup

And in China…

VW, China spearhead $300 billion global drive to electrify cars

Audi China to roll out 12 locally-produced models in total by 2022

BYD launches EV535, all-electric SUV

BYD Song MAX BEV version with 500km range to hit market in 2019

Top of Form

Bottom of Form

Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market

BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant

BAIC brings EX5 Electric SUV to market

Daimler to Start EQC Electric SUV Production in China in 2019

GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023

Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles

Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020

Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market

NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag

536 HP Nio ES6 Midsize Electric SUV Launches With 317-Mile Range (at 1/2 the price of Tesla X

NIO’s third model said to be a sedan dubbed EP7

BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China

Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China

Jaguar Land Rover's Chinese arm invests £800m in EV production

SAIC building factory in China for EVs from Roewe and MG

Renault and Brilliance Automotive to build 3 new electric light commercial vehicles for China

Honda launches new all-electric Everus VE-1 for ~$25,000 in China

Honda to roll out over 20 electric models in China by 2025

Changan building large scale NEV factory

Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
XPENG Motors kicks-off sales of Tesla-infused EV for €30,000

XPENG Motors to unveil second model at Auto Shanghai 2019

WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market

Geely invests $5 billion into new electric car factory in China

Geely’s new all-electric sedan code-named GE11 hits market in Q1 2019

Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China

Chery's second EV plant open in Dezhou

Fast-growing Byton ready to mass-produce premium EV in China

DearCC Launches ENOVATE Electric SUV

GAC Trumpchi to launch range-extended EVs

Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020

Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (ORA) In China

Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range

Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles

Hongqi’s first all-electric SUV E-HS3 put into volume production

FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025

JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers

ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion

Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market

Hozon Kicks Off Mass Production With All-Electric Neta N01

Aiways U5 long-range electric SUV

All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China

Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production

CHJ Automotive buys Lifan for shortcut to EV production

Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars

Qoros Auto's new owner plans to be an EV power

JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China

Thunder Power Chinese EV manufacturer clinches deal with Belgian investment fund

Leapmotor raises RMB2.5 billion for Series A round to build electric cars

Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China

Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…

Tesla Ranks Last for Automated Driving

What Smart Tesla fans Get Wrong about Full Self-Driving

A Tesla self-driving blind spot that few are focusing on

Waymo Starts First Driverless Car Service

Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car

Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000

Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership

Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars

Cadillac Super Cruise™ Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving

GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019

Honda Joins with Cruise and General Motors to Build New Autonomous Vehicle

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise

An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving

Mercedes plans advanced self-driving tech for next S class

Daimler's heavy trucks start self-driving some of the way

Nvidia partners with Mercedes on artificial intelligence

Nvidia to test fleet of robotaxis in 2019 with Daimler, Bosch

NVIDIA and Toyota Collaborate to Accelerate Market Introduction of Autonomous Cars

Volkswagen and NVIDIA to Infuse AI into Future Vehicle Lineup

Volvo, Nvidia expand autonomous driving collaboration

Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars

Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020

Intel’s Mobileye will have 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps in 2018

Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars

Toyota Adds $2.8 Billion to Software Push for Self-Driving Cars

Toyota, SoftBank in first-ever alliance, target self-driving car services

Toyota Invests $500 Million in Uber to Get Self-Driving Cars on the Road

Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping

Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs

Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design

Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform

Ford-Backed Driverless-Car Startup Argo AI Lures Talent

Ford to invest $4 billion in new self-driving vehicle unit

Ford, Baidu to start self-driving road tests in China

Baidu, WM Motor announce strategic partnership for L3, L4 autonomous driving solutions

Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021

Daimler and Baidu to Enhance Strategic Cooperation in Automated Driving

Volvo, Baidu to co-develop EVs with Level 4 autonomy for China

VW taps Baidu's Apollo platform to develop self-driving cars in China

Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas

Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars

Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021

Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year

Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles

ZF autonomous EV venture to start output this year, names first customer

Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4

Bosch Creates a Map That Uses Radar Signals for Automated Driving

Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public

Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture

JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks

NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi

Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving

Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology

First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi

Apple Is Focusing on Making an Autonomous Car System

World’s most valuable AI startup SenseTime unveils self-driving center in Japan

Samsung, Harman gear up for self-driving automobiles

Mitsubishi Electric Develops Automated Mapping For Autonomous Driving

Hitachi demonstrates vehicle with 11-function autonomous driving ECU

DENSO and NEC Collaborate on Automated Driving and Manufacturing

Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars

Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…

LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020

LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China

Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show

SK Innovation to boost EV battery production capacity more than tenfold by 2022

New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes

Daimler starts building electric car batteries in Tuscaloosa – one of 8 battery factories

Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China

Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota

CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory

CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany

BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants

GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai

Volkswagen plans entry into battery cell production

VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery

Honda Partners on General Motors' Next Gen Battery Development

Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk's Gigafactory

France's Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020

ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe's biggest battery plant

Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant

Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems

BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre

BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang

BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company

Toyota promises auto battery 'game-changer'

VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment

Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries

Continental eyes investment in solid-state batteries

Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations

UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries

Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs

Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs

 

Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…

Panasonic

Samsung

LG

BYD

AES + Siemens (Fluence)

GE

Bosch

Mitsubishi Hitachi

NEC

Hitachi Chemical

Toshiba

ABB

Saft

Johnson Contols

EnerSys

SOLARWATT

Schneider Electric

sonnenBatterie

Kokam

Sharp

Eaton

Nissan

Tesvolt

Kreisel

Leclanche

Lockheed Martin

EOS Energy Storage

ESS

UET

electrIQ Power

Belectric

Sunverge

Stem

ENGIE

Exergonix

Redflow

Renault

Fluidic Energy

Primus Power

Simpliphi Power

redT Energy Storage

Murata

Bluestorage

Adara

Blue Planet

Clean Energy Storage Inc.

Tabuchi Electric

Younicos

Orison

Moixa

Powin Energy

Nidec

Powervault

Schmid

24M

Eelpower

Ecoult

Innolith

LithiumWerks

Natron Energy

And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…

Electrify America: Our Plan

EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US

Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.

Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.

ChargePoint To Equip Mercedes Dealerships With 150kw Charging Stations For EQC

Recargo Ultrafast West Coast Charging

BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network

E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020

Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations

Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational

Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas

ChargePoint Secures $240 Million in Additional Funding; $500 million raised in total

UK's Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020

UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network

Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe

Deutsche Telekom to build electric car charging network in Germany

ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger

Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion

BP buys UK's largest car charging firm Chargemaster

Total planning EV charging points at its French stations

VW Is Setting Up Electric Car Charging Stations in China

Yet despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???

Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges

Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”

Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures

Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date

As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall

Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk's Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?

How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars

When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?

Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale

Debunking The Tesla Mythology

Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers

Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story

Tesla Timeline Shows Musk's Morality Is Highly Convenient

Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers

Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash

Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive

I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3

Tesla's Financial Shenanigans

Tesla: A Failure To Communicate

Can You Really Trust Tesla?

Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla's Most Recent Conference Call

Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station

Tesla's Amazing Powerwall Reservations

So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford and nearly matches GM’s despite selling approximately 300,000 cars a year while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6 million and 9 million cars respectively. Thus, this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its roughly $60 billion enterprise value and—thanks to its roughly $31 billion in debt and purchase obligations—may eventually be worth “zero.”




About the Author

Jacob Wolinsky
Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Prior to ValueWalk, Jacob was VP of Business Development at SumZero. Prior to SumZero, Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver