Analysts’ Expectations For Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) 4Q18 Results

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Analysts’ Expectations For Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) 4Q18 Results
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Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) will report its 4Q18 results on the 17th of January, following are the comments from analysts on what they expect from the company.

Netflix 4Q18 Results Expectations

BMO Capital Markets

We expect 4Q18 results and 1Q19 guidance to be in-line when Netflix reports Thursday after the close. Netflix has recovered from December lows due in part to viral hit Bird Box and critical acclaim for Roma, and remains our #2 pick (behind AMZN) as long-term dynamics are unchanged, if not better (crossing 60mm domestic subs in 4Q18, continued international growth, licensing revenues). Additionally, Netflix has the lowest regulatory risk within FANG, would be a resilient business during a recession, and we see FCF losses bottoming in 2019.

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Cowen Equity Research

NFLX reports 4Q18 earnings on 1/17. We expect solid 4Q18 results, led in part by NFLX adding a record number of Original programming hours, +88% y/y. Our latest US survey data suggests NFLX maintains its lead in the living room, particularly among younger demos. Our estimates are largely unchanged, incorporated Oct. debt raise & rolled model forward to ’29. PT unchanged at $430, Maintain Outperform.

Goldman Sachs

We expect Netflix to report 4Q results well above and provide initial guidance for 1Q in-line or modestly above FactSet consensus after the close on Thursday. The strong release slate in the quarter, growing content library, and broadening distribution network  combined to drive this outperformance, in our opinion, and should continue to do so in the year ahead as 2017/18’s significant increase in cash content investment pays off. While the stock has significantly outperformed since the beginning of the year as investor expectations have risen, creating some risk around the print itself, we continue to believe that as Netflix exceeds investor expectations for subscriber growth and profitability throughout 2019 shares will continue to outperform. Therefore, we reiterate our Buy rating (CL) and $400 price target.

Stifel

Netflix is raising prices by 13% to 18% in the U.S., as its Basic plan is now $8.99 per month, Standard $12.99, and Premium $15.99, from $7.99, $10.99, and $13.99, respectively. The new prices are effective immediately for new subscribers, while existing customers will see the new pricing during the next three months.

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Jacob Wolinsky is the founder of ValueWalk.com, a popular value investing and hedge fund focused investment website. Jacob worked as an equity analyst first at a micro-cap focused private equity firm, followed by a stint at a smid cap focused research shop. Jacob lives with his wife and four kids in Passaic NJ. - Email: jacob(at)valuewalk.com - Twitter username: JacobWolinsky - Full Disclosure: I do not purchase any equities anymore to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest and because at times I may receive grey areas of insider information. I have a few existing holdings from years ago, but I have sold off most of the equities and now only purchase mutual funds and some ETFs. I also own a few grams of Gold and Silver

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