Business

The Next Enron?

Guys–I’m clearing out a very over-loaded email box, before I head to Italy on Monday for three weeks of being a tourist. Thanks as always for the insightful emails and questions.

Kuppy

While, I cannot advise you on what to do, I am absolutely confident in saying that YOU ARE A FNG MORON if you vote in favor of board members who destroyed nearly $3 billion in shareholder value over the past 4 years.

Kuppy, what do you really think?? haha

Was I too subtle?

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My wife and I just withheld our votes for the legacy board members. I still might be a fking moron, however!

For TD Ameritrade account holders who are not morons: You should have received an email with a link to vote. We got ours April 7th. The link in the email (after your control no.) is where you can specifically record your vote.  It took 2 minutes!   Kuppy: Keep up the GREAT WORK!  Please remind people to vote and to check their emails for voting instructions if they have online brokerages.  All the best,

From a reader

Some fund named 22NW claims to have 4.3 million shares and will also withhold votes. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/22nw-fund-issues-statement-against-120000938.html Do you think others will also withhold votes? 

Since I posted my piece, I have heard from multiple funds with 7-figure positions that intend to withhold their votes and had reached similar conclusions to mine on their own–but reached out anyway to commiserate on how awful this board has treated shareholders. I tend to think this vote will be quite close. If you own shares, you should vote and let your opinion count. Keep in mind that I AM NOT telling you how to vote your shares.

Hi Kuppy,

TDW is up nearly 20% (congrats) from where you wrote about it. The year-end update didn’t show much progress. Why do you think the shares are going up?

Look at the price of oil. That is the leading indicator. If it stays over $60 for any length of time, offshore exploration spending will recover. Already, the North Sea has seen an increase in spend. Investors are starting to extrapolate today’s $67 price to mean that business will pick up going forward.

Kuppy,

Why do you think TSLA is going to zero. Musk has come out twice this month to say that they do not need money and will be profitable in Q3. 

If you want to believe a compulsive liar, there isn’t much I can say to you. He hasn’t hit on any target or deliverable with any sort of reliability for years now. Why should I believe him now? Remember in 2016 when he said they’d be profitable and didn’t need any more money? Or when they said that in 2017? He’ll probably be saying the same thing at the bankruptcy hearing…

So, lemme get this straight, Model X and S are seeing demand fall off a cliff, Model 3 is in “production hell,” Tesla Semi is nowhere in sight despite 2019 delivery promises and now Musk is out there waving his arms about Model Why (Model Y) for 2019 and there is no factory to produce it and likely never will be. Guy cannot focus on any project for more than a few months. Why does anyone think he can deliver on this vehicle?

You summed it up pretty well. haha

When a guy pulls all nighters on the floor of his factory, I don’t think that’s a sign of something to be proud of. It sounds like a desperate sound byte made to sound impressive. Real CEO’s delegate tasks and monitor deadlines. 

Yeah, TLSA plays by different rules…

Says it all, right?

haha. Musk going “Bankwupt” reminds me of when Skilling called an analyst an asshole on a conference call

Your friend Chris wrote a darn convincing article on Vanadium. Do you have any opinion on it?

Wink, wink, I sorta gave him the idea. He gets paid to write, it’s a hobby for me, so he beat me to the punch. After I saw the quality of his report, I figured it was stupid for me to write my own version. Readers should seriously think to subscribe as the content there is great. https://capitalistexploits.at/become-an-insider/

In terms of Vanadium, every year, there is one super hot commodity that gets everyone excited as it goes up a bunch due to a supply and demand imbalance that tends to correct the following year, the commodity tends to end with “ium” and tends to be very esoteric. I  think that Vanadium is the hot metal of 2019 or 2020 (this year is all about cobalt which Chris also nailed before the move started). In any case, I owned some AVL AU and some BMN LN from before he wrote about it. I sold them both for pretty nice gains and haven’t looked back. Even though I think both are going higher, I cannot bring myself to seriously own shares in a mining company–even a producer like BMN LN. Caveat Emptor