When it comes to stock price targets, you can pretty much expect a bidding war of sorts, but believe it or not, there’s a growing number of analysts trying to slap a price target on Bitcoin. Unfortunately for them, this is one target that’s not just moving—it’s flailing around wildly. Now we have to ask ourselves: how many Bitcoin predictions does one person give before just letting it climb until it slows?
Bitcoin predictions: $28,000
The reason making Bitcoin predictions in terms of price is because its value is climbing so high so fast. The cryptocurrency is setting new record highs daily; in fact, it climbed more than 20% in only 24 hours, according to MarketWatch.
However, that’s not keeping analyst Ronnie Moas of Standpoint Research from making his Bitcoin price predictions, and according to Benzinga, he’s raised his price target four times in a month. He now expects the Bitcoin price to reach $28,000 by the end of next year. His previous Bitcoin predictions put the value at $7,500, and then $11,000, $14,000, and now $20,000 since it has already blown past his previous price target. Looking out more long-term, he looks for $60,000 by 2022.
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He said last month that more and more countries are starting to pave the way for wider user of cryptocurrency, and unlike many others, he sees it as a gold alternative. He says some argue for Bitcoin’s market cap to reach gold’s $7 trillion market cap in 15 years. Although he’s highly bullish on Bitcoin, he advises investors to diversify and put multiple cryptocurrencies in their portfolios.
One way to short Bitcoin
Many of those offering Bitcoin predictions are arguing in the opposite direction, and believe it or not, you can actually short the cryptocurrency, in a way. Ihor Dusaniwsky, predictive analytics managing director at financial analytics firm S3 Partners, explained one way to do this in a note today. He highlighted Grayscale Investment’s Bitcoin Investment Trust, which he describes as “the only active ETF whose performance is directly tied to Bitcoin’s market price.” Of course, rather than shorting the cryptocurrency itself, you’re shorting an ETF, but it’s still a way to bet against Bitcoin.
The exchange-traded fund is trading at a 53% premium to its assets, he added. He explained that one reason for this is because there’s huge demand for the security, but the ETF’s outstanding shares and unrestricted tradable shares haven’t grown much. The ETF’s stock price has skyrocketed 1,228% this year alone, while the number of outstanding shares has only grown 2.1% and the number of unrestricted shares has increased 28.6%.
According to Dusaniwsky, short interest in GBTC reached a year-to-date high of $71 million earlier this week after averaging $21 million for the whole year. Short-sellers have lost $45.9 million, of which $39.1 million has occurred since the Bitcoin rally which started in late October. He expects the cost to borrow shares of the ETF to rise further, although it hasn’t been cheap to do it.
Bitcoin predictions: what goes up must come down
If you haven’t been scared off yet and your own Bitcoin predictions have made you bullish on the cryptocurrency, be advised that you should shop around at multiple exchanges. The problem is that the prices differ significantly, sometimes to the tune of more than $2,000, according to CoinDesk.
We leave you with one last prediction that just might make you weep. Danish investment bank Saxo Bank predicts that the Bitcoin price will hit $60,000 next year and then crash to $1,000 the same year. However, we have to question just how much of this was tongue-in-cheek because it was included on the firm’s “Outrageous Predictions” list, which lists “highly unlikely events with underappreciated potential.”
Whether you believe that one or not though, I think it’s safe to say that any and all Bitcoin predictions right now may be deemed outrageous simply because there is so little visibility here.