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Black Friday Death Count Betting Odds

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It’s becoming readily apparent that the concept of ‘Black Friday’ will be downright inexplicable to the next generation. With ‘brick and mortar’ retail itself quickly becoming a relic of an earlier age the complete irrelevance of ‘Black Friday’ could happen sooner rather than later. “Did people *really* leave their home on the day after Thanksgiving and brave traffic and crowds just to buy consumer goods?” This will be a tough one to explain to be sure.

Black Friday Cyber Monday Betting Odds black friday death count
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For those of us who grew up in the 1980’s, ‘Black Friday’ has long been an ubiquitous part of the holiday experience. There’s no official consensus on when it started but the most widely accepted origin story dates back to Philadelphia in the early 1960’s. The local law enforcement dubbed the two days after Thanksgiving as ‘Black Friday’ due to the increase in traffic, accidents and general ‘bloody mayhem’. This gave longtime Philadelphia booster and champion of the retail community Abe Rosen an idea–he petitioned the city to rename the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving as ‘Big Friday’ and ‘Big Saturday’.

The general concept caught on but Rosen’s ‘upbeat branding’ didn’t. ‘Big Saturday’ faded into obscurity but the Friday after Thanksgiving as a big shopping day did–only with the original ‘Black Friday’ moniker attached. It took awhile to spread nationwide but by the 1980’s ‘Black Friday’ had become a de facto holiday. Since the mid 2000’s, it has annually been the busiest shopping day of the year though it has been hyped as such for much longer.

Depending on where and when you shopped, ‘Black Friday’ became synonymous with crowded malls, sales and in many cases boorish behavior and violence. According to the website ‘Black Friday Death Count‘ there have been 10 deaths and 105 injuries attributed to the shopping hysteria since 2006 citing ugly incidents like “San Antonio man helped a woman being beaten in a Walmart parking lot, shot dead“. There has even been an upswing in incidents where the angry mob starts looting the store in an effort to get the ‘ultimate bargain’. It has become routine for the foreign media to use ‘Black Friday’ as an indictment of American culture and on many levels the ugliness of the spectacle is hard to argue with.

‘Black Friday’ In Decline

‘Black Friday’ is on life support due to a confluence of factors. The decline of the American shopping mall has been a well documented trend that will only escalate during the years to come. Since ‘Black Friday’ was largely a ‘mall-centric’ phenomenon it has suffered collateral damage. In reality, the problem is much larger than that as the entire ‘brick and mortar’ retail industry is reeling due to a combination of changing consumer habits, an overbuilt inventory of stores (many in shopping malls) and a mountain of burdensome debt. Until recently, major retail companies would just refinance debt that was coming due but the game has changed. Financial institutions see the ‘writing on the wall’ and no longer consider retail a good risk.

Retail would have plenty of issues due to these circumstances alone but the seismic shift in consumer behavior brought about by the digital revolution will likely be remembered as the mortal blow. As the traditional retail environment has continued to deteriorate the growth in online shopping continues unabated. 2016 was the first year that online holiday shopping revenue surpassed ‘brick and mortar’, or at least that’s how it’s being reported. In reality, it probably happened several years ago. Now it’s impossible to ignore–even ‘brick and mortar’ lobby group the National Retail Federation is hard pressed to put a positive spin on traditional retail. The (more or less) ‘official’ data from 2016 is all you need to know–10 million more Americans shopped online than in stores on ‘Black Friday’. Total online sales hit $3 billion with at least $1 billion coming from mobile sources. Most media outlets use the NRF’s numbers so the real picture is likely even more ugly for ‘brick and mortar’ and other analog era retail channels.

There’s no reason to think that this dynamic will change in the future. To the contrary, digital shopping is now entrenched in ‘middle America’ and will only become more so as ‘Flyover Country’ joins the 21st Century. Some ‘brick and mortar’ outlets are scrambling to find a digital strategy before it’s too late with varying degrees of success. Some are courting inevitable failure by doing the same thing they always have, albeit with an ‘online veneer’ slapped on for good measure. Many–including analog era relics like Sears and KMart–are simply ‘playing out the string‘ as they try to stave off the inevitable.

This is the backdrop for ‘Black Friday’ and the broader Holiday Season 2017 and I kept this context in mind while setting the official SPORTS BETTING EXPERTS betting odds for retail sales on that day. Once the sales revenues are in for the post-Thanksgiving weekend we’ll post some odds on how both ‘brick and mortar’ and online retailers will fare during the crucial holiday shopping season:

If you are not familiar with American odds listed, a negative number (generally representing the “Favorite”) = how much you have to bet to profit $100.
A positive number = how much you profit if you bet $100.

Black Friday/Cyber Monday Betting Odds

Black Friday Statistical Props

Total US 2017 Holiday Retail Sales?

Over $680 billion USD: -150

Under $680 billion USD: +130

‘Holiday retail sales’ is the sum of November and December sales not including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants. Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading.

Will Total US 2017 Holiday Retail Sales Exceed 2016 Total Us Holiday Retail Sales ($655.8 Billion USD)?

Yes, higher than $655.8 billion USD: -350

No, $655.8 billion USD or lower: +300

‘Holiday retail sales’ is the sum of November and December sales not including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants. Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading.

Per Shopper US 2017 Holiday Retail Sales?

Over $950 USD: -170

Under $950 USD: +150

‘Holiday retail sales’ is the sum of November and December sales not including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants. Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading.

Total Shopper Count For Thanksgiving Weekend 2017?

Over 155.5 million: +110

Under 155.5 million: -130

Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading.

Total Number Of US Black Friday Shoppers In-Store?

Over 100 million: +150

Under 100 million: -170

Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading

Percentage Of Over US 2017 Retail Sales Attributed To Holiday Spending?

Over 20%: +210

Under 20%: -250

‘Holiday retail sales’ is the sum of November and December sales not including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants. Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading.

Average Number Of Gifts Per Person Bought During 2017 Holiday Season?

Over 14.5: -150

Under 14.5: +130

‘Holiday retail sales’ is the sum of November and December sales not including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants. Data from Deloitte Holiday Retail Sales Survey will be used for grading.

Number Of Seasonal Workers Hired For 2017 Holiday Retail Season?

Over 525,000: +130

Under 525,000: -150

Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading.

Cyber Monday/online Shopping Props

US Online Sales Revenue For Thanksgiving Day November 23,2017?

Over $1.3 billion (USD): -210

Under $1.3 billion (USD): +180

Sales data reported by Statista.com will be used for grading

US Online Sales Revenue For ‘black Friday’ November 24, 2017?

Over $2 billion (USD): -250

Under $2 billion (USD): +210

Sales data reported by Statista.com will be used for grading

Total Number Of US Black Friday Shoppers Online?

Over 110 million: -130

Under 110 million: +110

Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading

Which Will Be Higher?

Number of US Black Friday shoppers online -5 million: -150

Number of US Black Friday shoppers in-store +5 million: +130

Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading

Total Amount Of US Online ‘Cyber Monday’ Sales?

Over $3.75 billion: -150

Under $3.75 billion: +130

Data from Adobe will be used for grading

Total Amount Of US Mobile ‘Cyber Monday’ Sales?

Over $1.2 billion: -210

Under $1.2 billion: +180

Data from Adobe will be used for grading. Sales from phones and tablets are considered ‘mobile sales’.

Black Friday Odds And Ends Props

What Percentage Of US Black Friday In-Store Shoppers Will ‘Camp Out’ At The Store?

Over 22.5% million: +150

Under 22.5% million: -170

‘Camping out’ is defined as arriving before midnight local time on Thanksgiving Day. Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading

Total Amount Of Gift Card Sales During Us 2017 Holiday Retail Sales?

Over $29.5 billion USD: -130

Under $29.5 billion USD: +110

‘Holiday retail sales’ is the sum of November and December sales not including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants. Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading.

Number Of Customers Entering Macy’s Herald Square NYC Flagship Store At 5 Am Eastern Opening On November 24, 2017?

Over 15,500: -150

Under 15,500: +130

Number reported by Macy’s Corporate Communications will be used for grading purposes

Turkey And Ham Sold By Wal-Mart From 12:01 AM On November 19, 2017 Through 11:59 PM Eastern On November 22, 2017?

Over 149.5 million pounds: -170

Under 149.5 million pounds: +150

Number reported by Wal-Mart’s Corporate Communications will be used for grading purposes

Which Will Be Higher??

Wal-mart Thanksgiving Day 2017 customer count minus 3 million: -170

Disneyland’s 2017 annual attendance plus 3 million: +150

Number reported by Disney and Wal-Mart’s Corporate Communications will be used for grading purposes

Which Will Be Higher??

Wal-mart Thanksgiving Day 2017 customer count minus 1.5 million: -145

Disneyworld’s 2017 annual attendance plus 1.5 million: +125

Number reported by Disney and Wal-Mart’s Corporate Communications will be used for grading purposes

Black Friday death count odds on everything

Which Will Be Higher??

Number of fatal unprovoked shark attacks worldwide in 2017: +130

Number of 2017 Black Friday deaths worldwide +3.5: -150

Shark attack data from TrackingSharks.com and Black Friday death data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.

Which Will Be Higher??

Number of fatal unprovoked shark attacks in Australia during 2017: +130

Number of 2017 Black Friday deaths in Wal-Mart parking lots: -150

Shark attack data from TrackingSharks.com and Black Friday death data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.

Which Will Be Higher??

Number of Black Friday 2017 deaths in the United States: -250

Number of 2017 Black Friday combined injuries and deaths in the rest of the world: +210

Black Friday death and injury data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.

Which Will Be Higher??

Number of 2017 Black Friday combined injuries and deaths in the United States:-250

Number of 2016 Black Friday combined injuries and deaths in the United States(4): +210

Black Friday death and injury data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.

Will There Be A Pepper Spray Incident On Black Friday 2017??

Yes: -170

No: +150

Data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.

Will There Be A Gun Related Incident On Black Friday 2017??

Yes: -350

No: +300

Data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.

Will There Be A Fist Fight Or A Physical Assault Without A Weapon On Black Friday 2017??

Yes: +180

No: -210

Data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.

Will There Be A Trampling Incident On Black Friday 2017??

Yes: -150

No: +130

Data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.

What Percentage Of 2017 Black Friday Shoppers Will Be Drunk?

Over 7.5%: -130

Under 7.5%: +110

Data from BestBlackFriday.com will be used for grading purposes.

Which Will Be Higher?

US home and car thefts on Black Friday 2017: -150

US home and car thefts on any other day during 2017: +130

Data from Travelers Insurance will be used for grading purposes.

State To Have A Reported 2017 Black Friday Injury Or Death

California: +300

Tennessee: +500

New Jersey: +500

Pennsylvania: +500

New York: +750

South Carolina: +750

Arkansas: +900

Nevada: +900

North Carolina: +1500

Virginia: +1500

West Virginia: +1750

Texas: +1750

Illinois: +2500

Michigan: +2500

Alabama: +2500

Any other state: +300

Data from BestBlackFriday.com will be used for grading purposes.

What do you think the black friday death coun will be by state? Comment below!black friday death count

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and ‘non-sport novelty bets’ focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.

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