USD And WTI

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The US$ has continued to fall without an immediate response from $WTI. This is not unusual. Although the inverse pattern is fairly strong, it is not a lock-step daily pattern. There has been confusion with Harvey’s and Irma’s impact on production/consumption. We should see a sharp rise in $WTI the next month if the algorithms reassert themselves.

 

There were disruptions across the system. We saw production declines, crude inventories build, gasoline inventories drop by record levels, a drop in exports, a drop in refining and top it off the EIA has dropped its over-supply forecast by 30%. Harold Hamm indicates the forecasted supply remains decently higher than that of industry insiders and another 20%-25% reduction in excess supply estimates should occur.

 

I remain surprised that the EIA and API forecasts, on which traders rely, are always backwards-adjusted and few seem to pay much attention.

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About the Author

valueplays
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.

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