Cornerstone Macro On The Current Economic Expansion

Cornerstone Macro On The Current Economic Expansion
3844328 / Pixabay

Happy anniversary to The New York Stock Exchange, which celebrated its 225th anniversary on Wednesday, May 17th!   Financial historian and WEALTHTRACK guest, Professor Richard Sylla explained to board members of The Museum of American Finance, including me, why the traders, who originally met under a Buttonwood tree on Wall Street moved indoors. After a financial panic in early 1792, New York law makers banned trading securities on the Street, so 20 Buttonwood brokers founded a club indoors to do business. Sometimes it takes a crisis to innovate…

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How long can this economic recovery, which began after the most recent financial crisis, last without slipping into recession?

The longest economic expansion in the U.S. lasted exactly 10 years or 120 months. That was from the trough in the economy in March of 1991 to its peak in March of 2001.  According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, the current recovery started at the bottom of the last recession in June of 2009 and is still going, 8 years or 96 months later, making it the third oldest on records kept since the 1850’s.

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Does long in the tooth mean a short life ahead?  According to this week’s guest,  Nancy Lazar, not necessarily.  In an exclusive WEALTHTRACK interview, she will  explain why the economy still has legs.

Lazar is Co-Founder, Partner and Head of the Economics Team at Cornerstone Macro, an independent  macroeconomic, investment and policy research firm she launched in 2013. She has been ranked one of the Street’s top economists by Institutional Investor magazine for the past 16 years, including being ranked number one in 2015 and number two the prior 4 years, just behind her former business partner of 20 years, WEALTHTRACK guest Ed Hyman.

Several years ago Lazar identified some major structural changes in the U.S. economy which made her a believer in its staying power. One is the manufacturing renaissance, occurring in the rust belt and other industrial areas, another is the revitalization of domestic energy production.  Two other contributing factors, low interest rates and modest inflation have also made the U.S. an attractive place to do business and create jobs.

I began the conversation by asking her if those favorable conditions are still intact, as the economic expansion approaches record-breaking longevity?

If you’d like to see the show before it airs, it is available to our PREMIUM subscribers right now.  We also have an EXTRA interview with Lazar about another macro trend she has identified – the new, smarter consumer.  It’s available exclusively on our website.

Thank you for watching, have a great weekend and make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one!

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