America’s stunning attack on Syria just days after the Trump Administration signaled tolerance for the Assad regime has left global-macro analysts scrambling to grasp the President’s decision making processes.Reports that Ivanka Trump’s “heartbroken” reaction to a possible chemical weapons attack influenced the impulsive decision suggest a President guided more by emotion than law or rigorous policy analysis.
The extent of the President’s daughter’s role in inspiring an act of war, without a formal investigating of the incident, Congressional approval or United Nation’s sanction calls for a total reappraisal of how the Administration is analyzed.
Because if the Trump children’s influence overrules traditional checks and balances related to war, then it will also be felt in economic, social, and political matters.
America’s drift towards monarchy
Ironically, the best historical model to use when analyzing the Trump Administration may be a monarchical court, in which the relative powers of princes, princesses, and “hired help” (such as senior advisor Steven Bannon) are often opaque.
This may sound like heresy. But there are numerous signs suggest that the United States has been drifting towards de facto monarchy for decades.
This can be seen in strong voter support for both the Bush and Clinton families, pressures on Michelle Obama to run for public office, coupled with a plunge in intergenerational economic mobility and the entrenching establishments of various power elites.
Donald Trump looks to be positioning his family to continue that trend.
The US President has given key policy posts to both Ivanka and his son-in-law Jared Kushner and has positioned US initiatives to funnel cash and free advertising to family holdings (Mar-a-Lago and Trump Tower), run by his sons Eric and Donald Junior.
America isn’t alone in its drift towards monarchy, which for most of recorded human history has been the planet’s natural system of governance.
Canada’s Justin Trudeau is the son of a former head of state, as are Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Korea’s Kim Jong-Un, and slews of third world leaders.
Prince “Jared the Debtor”: key to U.S. monetary policy
If you think of the Trump children and relatives as traditional “princes” and “princesses”, then their interests and possible courses of action become clearer.
The best example relates to Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, whom, for ease of understanding, we may refer to as “Prince Jared the Debtor” in this article.
Prince Jared comes from the Kushner real estate family, which like most investors in the sector, including King Donald himself, are heavy users of debt financing.
Analysts who take this into consideration, as we did in our Megatrends 2020 article , can easily chart the course for interest rates: the Trump Administration Federal Reserve appointments will consist entirely of easy money advocates.
The President himself recently confirmed this by uttering favorable comments about Janet Yellen, following harsh condemnation of her policies during the election campaign.
Similar clarity about possible Trump Administration moves can be gained by analyzing the relative positions of the remaining Trump children, Eric, Donald and Tiffany, as well as other family members.
King Donald the Tyrant
On a more sobering note, analyzing the Trump Administration as a monarchy, with Donald Trump as “King”, provides an excellent framework for understanding how foreign powers will react.
James Madison, writing in the Federalist Papers (under the pseudonym Helvetius 1), described a government that initiated acts of war without Congressional approval (as the Trump Administration just did) as a “tyranny.”
Americans will not initially pay attention to this analysis or depiction. But foreign powers will.
The era of hyperpower politics ended last week.
As these words are being typed, any foreign leader with interests that are antithetical to those of King Donald the Tyrant, that has a modicum of common sense, will be seeking a way to get under either the Russian or Chinese nuclear umbrella.
A huge opportunity for the Alt-Fin media
Analyzing the power and influence of the Trump children as well as the President’s brothers, sisters and friends provides stunning opportunities for the Alt-Fin media.
Zero Hedge, USA Watchdog, RealVision, newsletter writers and the like, many of which have been operating “out of the box” for years, are far better prepared to adapt the new environment than legacy analysts.
That’s particularly true of the older Alt-Fin media hacks who followed the Soviet Union during the Cold War, who refined creative techniques for assessing power structures by, for example analyzing the positioning of Politburo members during May Day parades.
Conversely mainstream media, think tanks and private sector forecasters – which assess power structures and economic trends based on title, function and flows – are unlikely to have the flexibility to adjust their perspectives outside their silos.
That said, the following is a useful tool:
Pick the Trump kid, friend, or relative whose motives and actions you want to understand.
Now pronounce their name with their appropriate title next to it.
“Princess Ivanka the Heartbroken.” “Prince Jared the Debtor.” “Princess Tiffany the Wild.” “King Donald the Tyrant.”
Now you get it.
Article by Peter Diekmeyer, Sprott Money