Le Pen. But then what?

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Le Pen. But then what?
Marine Le Pen's niece and also an influential leader of Front National - Photo by Remi Noyon

wildly uncompetitive, will become more so. How can it not?

Exiting the euro is going to involve a divorce from hell. There is no easy way to do this folks.

Capital controls will have to be implemented. In the hype and hope of a “new France” the hoi polloi will probably go for it, realising too late what has happened as their savings are vaporised in favour of the state.

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Make no mistake: Le Pen isn’t about “the people” but about “the French state”. The difference couldn’t be more dramatic.

The cost of capital will soar as free market mechanisms are constricted.

This will be a disaster for France, a country with private debt levels of 229% of GDP. A significantly weaker franc won’t do much good as the public sector will crowd out the private and access to capital and credit will decline faster than the newly issued franc is declining, which is probably saying something.

The idea that an already bureaucratic socialist, interventionist, and increasingly unproductive system needs more, not less interventionism, needs more state control not less, needs more money printing, not less, could only be dreamt up by complete morons. Sadly, that is what lies in store.

This has all happened before folks. Go read your history books. A 5-year old can tell you that in order to bake a cake you put in certain ingredients and you come out with a tasty cake.

Le Pen’s ingredients are going to bake an economic disaster. France is going to be like Argentina under Kirchner without the good steaks and the collagen enhanced lips.

The Question is…

 

How best to play this?

 

– Chris

PS: I’m going to offer something special today.

I’ve got my own thoughts on how best to play this over the coming months and years but if someone provides me with an excellent asymmetric idea which upon researching I use, I’ll give them a complimentary subscription to Insider. And if an existing member provides it, I’ll grant a free renewal. After all, we’re all in this to profit, despite what the likes of Le Pen decide to do.

“The FN has absolutely no chance of winning power. Its score in the second round will hover around 30 percent, perhaps 35 per cent – not more” — Patrick Buisson, ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy’s former key adviser

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