These 2 Weird Sentiment Charts Worked Wonders In 2016

The first chart was one of the “people’s choice charts” in my 2016 End of Year Special report. It shows a different perspective on investor sentiment which called the bottom of the market and signaled the start of the new bull market.

Investor Sentiment

Investor Sentiment

The indicator uses a combination of the AAII and II surveys and is a monthly view of a 12 month smoothing of monthly average readings (i.e. a longer term and slower moving look at what can often be a noisy indicator week-to-week). In the past whenever the indicator turns down to these levels it often marks a major market bottom.  In fact whenever the indicator turns down by substantial amount and then turns up (like it has now) it has historically marked either a major short-term bottom or a bullish continuation.

The good news is it’s still not towards levels that see the market stall out, but then again this indicator seems to work better at picking bottoms than tops.

The second chart looks at something that gets missed by taking a 12 month average – i.e. seasonal patterns in sentiment across the year.

Investor Sentiment

The pattern in investor sentiment (again a combination of AAII & II) largely tracks that of the stock market seasonality (usually good into year end, and at the start of the year, and less so around the middle of the year). It’s interesting to note how sentiment gets worn down as the year goes on.

What makes this chart really interesting is when we include the economic surprise index, which also seems to show some seasonality. And in this respect there is a warning of sorts for early next year – the typical pattern is that the economic surprise index takes a dive in Q1 – so while it’s only one factor, it may well be worth considering as we gear up for the new year.

As these two charts show, sometimes a different perspective and a dash of creativity can produce some really unique and valuable insights.

Thanks for your support in 2016 and best of luck for 2017!

Article by Callum Thomas, TopDown Charts



About the Author

Top Down Charts
Topdown Charts: "chart driven macro insights" Based in Queenstown, New Zealand, Topdown Charts brings you independent research and analysis on global macro themes and trends. Topdown Charts covers multiple economies, markets, and asset classes with a distinct chart-driven focus. We are not bound by technical or fundamental dogma, and instead look to leverage any relevant factor to capture the theme. As such, here you will find some posts that are purely technical strategy, some that just cover economics and data, and some posts that use multiple inputs to tell the story and identify the opportunities. Callum Thomas Head of Research Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts. He previously worked in investment strategy and asset allocation at AMP Capital in the Multi-Asset division. Callum has a passion for global macro investing and has developed strong research and analytical expertise across economies and asset classes. Callum's approach is to utilise a blend of factors to inform the macro view.