Today, is the biggest day for America in at least four years some would say. We (will hopefully) know tonight who will be the next President of the United States for four years and possibly eight. In one corner is a media mogul who represents “outsiders” hungry for change in America, Donald Trump. In the other corner is an insider who represents continuity (with some changes), Hillary Clinton.
This election (so the pundits say) has been the most nasty in recent history and many seem to be voting for the candidate they like least. On that front, Gary Johnson is polling a couple of points, Jill Stein has a few, and Evan Mcmullin who seemed to come out of nowhere has a very decent chance at winning ultra-red Mormon country, Utah.
Otherwise, most pundits expect Hillary Clinton to win although if Donald Trump has good turnout he could win some contested states and some light blue states. We will be providing live coverage as it comes out. In terms of what time we will know a winner? It is hard to answer – see our short video below on which states you want to watch.
Also, it is important to watch some ballot initiatives like Proposition 61 in California on Marijuana and even more importantly who controls the Senate where there are extremely tight races and the balance is uncertain. But we will mostly be focusing on the Presidential contest since that is the most exciting, easiest to follow and as the executive branch gets more and more powerful every year especially after the Presidencies of Geroge W. Bush and Barack Obama – it is the most important.
FULL DISCLOSURE: Unlike “media outlets” which were outright colluding with the DNC I am biased but will be honest about it. I am not voting for either major candidate and my only hope is that there is a split Government so neither Clinton nor Trump have total power.
Dave Lutz notes in his morning email:
At ~11amET VoteCastr and Slate will start publishing exit polls from key battleground states – The Polls have been dead wrong on calling election results – so it all comes down to Turnout – Base expectations continues to be that Clinton wins the White House, with a slim Democratic majority in the Senate—quite possibly a 50-50 split with the Vice President breaking the tie—and a somewhat smaller Republican majority in the House than the 246 seats they currently hold.
Note we will be updating this post throughout the day so please stay tuned for more EXCITING news!
10:15AM EST – Nate Silver who melted down on Twitter the other day but is more well known for his election coverage just released his final prediction stating that
Clinton is a 71% favorite in polls-only, 72% in polls-plus – Silver believes that Donald Trump has a better chance of winning the popular vote – that normally would not matter but in this election where many Donald Trump supporters are (rightfully) angry about the state of the country and their finances and many Hillary Clinton supporters do not like or trust her much that could give her a much weaker mandate to govern (at least psychologically?) – I am not sure since unlike pundits I do not claim to be able to predict the future but on that physchological note are you having election stress? What you need to know! See the video below!
The man who has shown disregard for many Americans and has openly campaigned for Hillary Clinton and constantly attacked Donald Trump wants you to vote specifically targeting young people who are more likely to vote for Clinton and clearly without stating it outright is clearly telling people to vote for Clinton.
Obama in latest video issues an important statement for American citizens:
— Common White Girl (@girlposts) November 8, 2016
10:18 AM EST: Here is the result of the Poll that ValueWalk conducted yesterday, and it seems like Donald Trump is taking lead here:
The poll is still open, you can cast your vote here:
Twitter users can show their support here:
— Sheeraz Raza (@SheerazRaza) November 8, 2016
UPDATE 10:40AM some great charts from Visual Capitalist
Here’s 10 charts and maps that will help prepare your brain for what may come this evening.
1. Media “Consensus” is a Clinton Victory
It’s been a roller coaster over recent months, but the media “consensus” view is that Clinton has the best odds at winning the race. The above chart from Josh Katz plots the chance of a Clinton victory over the last three months according to various publications.
2. But Brexit Moments Happen…
As we all saw in June, polling numbers are not to be trusted.
Even though the consensus view seems to be a Clinton victory, renowned statistician Nate Silver gives us significantly different odds. According to his website, the chance of a Trump victory is at roughly 28% as we head into Election Day.
Silver also recently defended his model on Twitter:
3. The Trump Path to Victory
While a Trump victory is less likely, if it were to happen it may look something like this:
To stand a chance, Trump has to take Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. That would get him to 259 electoral votes.
Then he’d need to find 11 votes elsewhere: winning one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Virginia would work. However, he has trailed in polls in these three states for months.
4. Demographics are Destiny
Trump and Clinton appeal to different groups of people.
For Trump to succeed, he will need working class whites to show up in droves at polling stations, and to somehow find cross-over appeal from other voting blocs.
5. Demographics are Destiny – Part Deux
Clinton will also need a strong turnout from the growing share of Hispanic voters in the country. This is especially important in states like Arizona, Florida, and New Mexico.
6. Obama is Hillary’s not-so-secret weapon
Obama’s approval rating is at its highest point in years, and this could end up being a deciding factor in mobilizing enough voters for Clinton.
7. Will voter turnout improve, generally?
Voter turnout in the 2012 election was low in comparison to other developed countries.
The question is: will it be higher in 2016, and who does this benefit the most?
8. Everyone’s a Hater
Maybe turnout will be high because of the “lesser evil” vote. After all, these are two of the most disliked candidates in history.
By the way, the above numbers are from summer 2016 – before the “lewd conversation” incident, the additional Trump sexual assault accusations, the release of most of the Podesta emails, and the re-opening (and re-closing) of Clinton’s FBI case.
9. A divided country
No matter who wins, the country will remain very divided over the near future. There will likely be a significant amount of disgruntled people in practically every state.
10. Money Raised
With the hype around the election, one would guess that the respective campaigns of Clinton and Trump would be destined for the record books.
However, that’s simply not the case:
The above chart by Max Galka shows normalized campaign finance history since 1960.
Clinton spent less than Obama did for either of his campaigns, and Trump was outspent by each of the last four Republican campaigns (Romney, McCain, and G.W. Bush 2x).
11:15AM Some early estimates from Slate which has a left leaning bias but is open about it (unlike other media outlets colluding to rig debates with the DNC) – anyway, I would think most outlets regardless of stance would want to get this data correct since it looks bad to have it totally off
— Slate (@Slate) November 8, 2016
Clinton lead in Florida (Trump basically needs to win FL or its over), but CO is very tight. Overall, looks better for Clinton right now and you can follow that all day here.
Also another video of ours on the election below
Also you can build your own electoral college below and see a video about the Marijuana ballot below – since it could become legal for 25 percent of America could have big ramifications for tobacco, pain drug makers, and criminal reform.
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
1:15PM EST latest updated – when will the election be over today – please see our video below for more on that. Also, you may have seen this elsewhere but the Mexican Peso is a really good proxy for the election. When Trump is doing well the Peso plummets and when Clinton is leading the Peso soars – the logic is that the market thinks a Trump victory would really hurt the Mexican currency. So where is the Peso now? As of this writing, the Peso is up one percent against the US dollar as the market expects a Clinton victory. Not much more data right now although WaPo says Trump voters are out in force as Clinton’s are also (although Nate Silver has said several times that would likely mean a Clinton victory – Trump’s only chance according to Silver is high turnout among Trump supporters and low or medium for Clinton (or something like that – it is not a direct quote and I do not want Nate to curse me out on Twitter so please read with a grain of salt or whatever)). See below our latest two videos.
1:35PM EST Already there are reports of voting irregularities but this one we can confirm and it is from our very own editor in the great state of Indiana. We will get that story soon but it is pretty outrageous.
Also, below that see other takes on the topic and demographics – note most of these sources are openly partisan so take everything with a grain of salt
Trump could benefit from the RPW’s infrastructure and Wis. demographics that could be a good match for his populism https://t.co/o07Qal9ilV
— Brian Fraley (@Dailytakes) November 7, 2016
— Bloomberg (@business) November 8, 2016
Also below is our video on why you need to vote (even though I disagree with that personally) here it is
3:35PM I could be wrong but this race might be tighter than I thought
On ther other hand Florida looks bad for Trump and good for Clinton
— Bradley Nolan (@BradleyNolan2) November 8, 2016
This is a crazy video and more below
this is what I was talking about, they fixed it but it was on some nut shit at first. pic.twitter.com/GO5Y9FCnYN
— ædonis | hotep (@lordaedonis) November 8, 2016
Pennsylvanians told CBS News their vote for Trump was changed to Clinton…
There have been some scattered issues where voters are encountering problems.
Election judges in Clinton Township, Butler County confirmed there were issues with two of their eight automated voting machines. Most of the issues came when people tried to vote straight party ticket.
However, other said they specifically wanted to vote for Republican Donald Trump only to see their vote switched before their eyes to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
“I went back, pressed Trump again. Three times I did this, so then I called one of the women that were working the polls over. And she said you must be doing it wrong. She did it three times and it defaulted to Hillary every time,” Bobbie Lee Hawranko said.
Allegheny County has also been dealing with some Election Day issues.
Here is a story from our editor on widespread voting problems in Indiana
One thing that has me raising questions about all the problems is the fact that Indiana’s online database has changed in the last 30 days. I checked my own registration about a month ago before the deadline to register, and it showed me as registered, but when I went back today, it showed no voter registration record with my name and birthdate in my county. As I started to ask around, I learned that others in my state had registered to vote, but their names were not appearing in the online voter database.
I’m hearing that the reason could be that the state “shut down” the online database because the deadline to register to vote was passed. However, the website makes it appear as if you’re not registered even if you are. So either someone made a bad decision to do it this way, or the allegations of voter fraud in Indiana have taken another turn.
As it turns out, I was able to successfully cast my ballot. The polling place’s records are different than the online database, apparently. However, anyone who goes to the online database to check whether they are registered to vote may be deterred from going to their polling place because they think that they won’t be able to vote. Lines at some places are quite long, from what I’ve heard, and people who seriously doubt that they will be allowed to cast their ballot may be unlikely to wait to find out. While this problem probably wouldn’t fall under voter fraud, it’s still a concern.
4:25 Updates – exit polls come out soon and we will start to get real data on states come out at 7PM EST (I believe) not much besides market skyrocketing earlier and the peso up which is good for Clinton and she seems to be doing well in Florida which is do or die for Trump so it might be all over if she wins that one state.
Below is the latest from Slate’s Votecaster on America’s wackiest state.
4:45PM DrudgeReport (a pro Trump aggregator) claims to have some earlier exit poll data below is a screenshot of the site
Also i will make two predictions – turnout will be record according to every media report I have seen and no matter who wins there will be cries of voter fraud from the other side (whether valid or not)
Also some videos including Jewish aryan Goddess Taylor swift voting.
5:05PM and the first exit polls are out!
- Clinton has contacted twice the voters Trump has
- Majority say Obama was not a factor in their vote
- Majority say the new president will have a mandate to govern
More here https://morningconsult.com/2016/11/08/clinton-bests-trump-ground-game-per-exit-poll-data/
Some more exit poll data is out and its interesting seems to be mixed – I do not know how to read it even the professional pundits can probably do a better job here – I assume Nate Silver will be the best person to follow on this specific issue – Also, sorry for issues with videos were are posting more below in case the ones above are not appearing.
Coverage continues through the night so stay tuned please!
8:30 Remember hanging chads, remember 2000 election, remember Florida man – bring it all together and this election is insane- Florida is literally a few dozen votes apart with the last votes being counted. Florida is literally a must win for Trump while Clinton can afford to lose it. So this is do or die for Trump and it is super close – we might not know the results tonight.
Basically, the fate of the world is being decided by these people https://twitter.com/_floridaman?lang=en
Some more of our videos embedded below also North Carolina seems close and Pennsylvania will be important to watch soon
Just heard the words “Florida” and “mandatory recount” in the same sentence. May God have mercy on us all…
— Freddie Campion (@FreddieCampion) November 9, 2016
Looks like the GOP will keep the Senate according to Nate Silver – 69 percent now
Republicans’ chances of winning the Senate are up to 69% in our model, after Indiana and Florida calls for GOP. https://t.co/zOPcHJq75h
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 9, 2016
8:45 – Those other important states – Pennsylvania is a toss-up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, CBS News estimates. Also Nate Cohn of the NYT notes:
Trump running well ahead of Romney in rural America. It will keep Michigan and Pennsylvania close
Also, a few other too close to call Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, and New Hempshire. It could be a long night unless Trump comofortably wins or loses Florida
— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) November 9, 2016
Back to Congress we just got the following statement in the inbox
Following reports that Republicans have retained control of the House of Representatives, FreedomWorks CEO Adam Brandon commented:
“Tonight, the Republican Party held on to their majority in the House but saw it diminished by the voters. This should serve as a message to Speaker Ryan and the rest of his leadership team that they should not continue the legacy of Boehner. The barn is now empty and collapsing. The legislative inertia that Republicans leaders in the House have offered over the last year is insufficient to the challenges of our time.”
“Speaker Ryan must work with conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus to implement conservative legislation that honors the Constitution, respects the free market, and empowers all Americans to make freedom work. We also want to have a serious debate over budget priorities and end this unnecessary cycle of continuing resolutions and omnibuses.”
“We believe in compromise, but compromise that reduces spending and restores economic liberty and personal freedom.”
9:05PM wow looks like Donald Trump just won Florida – now onto the other close states – we have a race here!
9:10 Is Donald Trump gong to beat Hillary Clinton – he won Florida and now is ahead in
– North Carolina
9:15PM North Carolina’s forecast just flipped to Trump by New York Times and Minnesota is too close to call
9:25PM Virginia with 72% reporting: – Trump 48% – Hillary 46%
Trump up 7% in Ohio
New Mexico (23% Rpt.) Clinton 50 Trump 38 Other 9
Current electoral votes Trump:139 Clinton:97
The Peso is tanking, the market (Dow) is down 450 points in futures markets
This is absolutely the only way the first vote could have been registered in this election. https://t.co/qhoJ4AJe0q
— Anson Whaley (@AnsonWhaley) November 8, 2016
9:35PM North Carolina (71% Rpt.) Trump 49.1 Clinton 48.4
Ohio (41% Rpt.) Trump 52 Clinton 44
Michigan (14% Rpt.) Trump 47.5 Clinton 47.4
Trump leads Clinton: #Florida 49.2-47.7 #Virginia 48.1-46.8 #Ohio 51.8-44.0 #NorthCarolina 49.5-47.9 #NewHampshire 47.7-47.2
Note some have not yet called Floriday for Trump but he seems to have won by 150k votes or so
9:45 With 80% reporting in North Carolina Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by about 201782 votes – Jill Stein has 241 votes (not a typo)
Hillary clinton has won New Mexico. Trump is surging in Ohio.
U.S. HOUSE SPEAKER PAUL RYAN OF WISCONSIN WINS RE-ELECTION TO CONGRESS – AP
— Hartswell Capital (@hartswellcap) November 9, 2016
Peso’s fall against the dollar now the highest since the 1994 Tequila Crisis.
Nate Cohn ?of NYT – with some good news for Hillary Clinton
We don’t project results, but we do believe that Clinton is overwhelmingly likely to win Virginia
Odds are now even for Trump, Clinton win
Tied Game pic.twitter.com/Ns5VWSqoun
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 9, 2016