We have normal week for economic data, including the first estimate for Q3 GDP. There are also important earnings reports. Election stories have become even more intense. Meanwhile, the market has been pretty quiet. I expect financial media to be asking:
When will the trading range be broken?
I will be traveling next week and probably will not write WTWA.
I have completed my new paper, The Top Twelve Investor Pitfalls – and How to Avoid Them. Readers of WTWA can get a copy by sending an email to info at newarc dot com. We will not share your email address with anyone.
[drizzle]Last week’s news was pretty good, despite the modest reaction in stocks.
In my last WTWA, I predicted more attention to the “stealth market rotation.” This idea got a little attention on Monday from the Pundit-in-Chief, but that was all. The rotation was less pronounced and the competing stories were good ones.
The Story in One Chart
I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short. Stocks had a slightly positive week, but the real story is the continuation of a very narrow trading range.
Doug has a special knack for pulling together all of the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words! Read his entire post where he adds analysis grounded in data and several more charts providing long-term perspective.
Each week I break down events into good and bad. Often there is an “ugly” and on rare occasion something really good. My working definition of “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!
- Building permits rose and beat expectations. But housing starts declined (see below). New Deal Democrat analyzes this contrast and the effect on his leading indicators.
- Philly Fed also beat expectations.
- Existing home sales rose 3.2%. Calculated Risk is the go-to source on housing, and Bill continues his analysis of the effects of the small inventory. This concept is essential to understanding housing trends.
- Industrial production registered a (small) increase of 0.1%. Steven Hansen notes that the year-over-year figure is still in contraction.
- Hotel occupancy still on pace to be the second best year in history. (Calculated Risk)
- Earnings season shows continuing strength. FactSet reports that 78% of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates and 65% beating on sales. Take a look at the entire analysis. Here are two interesting takeaways.
- Rail traffic continues to decline, even when coal and grain are excluded from the data. Steven Hansen does a thorough analysis of the trends.
- Jobless claims edged 13K higher, moving away from recent lows.
- Housing starts declined and missed estimates. The annual rate was 1.047 million. Calculated Risk discusses and notes that his prediction at the start of the year, growth of 4-8% still looks about right.
Increased hacking. Yesterday’s widespread outage attacked a domain name service, according to MarketWatch. Engadget says, Blame the Internet of Things and provides the map below. The hacking began with home devices which often have weak security protocols. With that entry, the distributed denial of service attack took down a list of major sites, including “Twitter, Spotify, Reddit, The New York Times, Pinterest, and PayPal.”
The Silver Bullet
I occasionally give the Silver Bullet award to someone who takes up an unpopular or thankless cause, doing the real work to demonstrate the facts. This week’s award goes to Ryan Detrick of LPL Research. I am showing the power of his work via the two key charts, but reading the entire post will help you to spot these things on your own.
The Week Ahead
We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react. That is the purpose of considering possible themes for the week ahead. You can make your own predictions in the comments.
We have a normal week for economic data, along with many important earnings reports. I watch everything on the calendar, so you do not need to! Check out WTWA to focus on what is really important – and ignore the noise.
The “A” List
- New home sales (T). Continuing strength needed.
- Consumer confidence (T). The Conference Board version spiked last month. Few expect the gains to hold?
- GDP for Q3 (F). Even though this is backward looking, it will get plenty of media attention in front of the election.
- Michigan Sentiment (F). Has been weaker than the Conference Board version. An important indicator.
- Initial claims (Th). The best concurrent indicator for employment trends.
The “B” List
- Pending home sales (Th). Not as important as new homes for immediate economic effect, but a good market indicator.
- Durable goods (Th). Volatile September data, but important for the overall assessment of the economy.
- Existing home sales (Th). Without the impact of new homes, but still a good read on the overall housing market.
Crude inventories (W). Recently showing even more impact on oil prices. Rightly or wrongly, that spills over to stocks.
More important than the economic data will be continuing earnings news. We also have almost daily Fedspeak and plenty of international events and speeches. And of course…the candidates.
Next Week’s Theme
Despite the many events that normally increase volatility, the stock market has traded in a narrow range. There is an increasing sense that “something’s got to give.” The exact cause and timing remain unclear, but the obvious choice is Election Day.
I expect an active discussion about a looming market question:
When will the trading range be broken?
Here is a chart of the market over the last year:
If you look at mid-July through today, you can see that the trading range has been quite narrow.
Now let’s turn to the sequence of topics I have written about in the last two months. These remind us of what we were thinking and worrying about each week.
- Possible rate increase after Jackson Hole 8/28
- Chance of an Autumn Correction 9/3
- Should we fear the Fed? 9/11
- Is the bond correction at hand? 9/18
- Election effects on the market 9/25
- Time to get past the gloom? 10/2
- Earnings recession over? 10/9
- Market rotation at hand? 10/16
Despite this list of challenges, stocks have held up pretty well.
Many are expecting the trading range to be broken soon. But in which direction?
Election predictions range from a surprise, Brexit-style victory for Mr. Trump to a Democratic sweep. The markets seem to favor a Clinton victory, but a continuation of divided government, mostly because of reduced uncertainty.
At the beginning of the year I wrote that the investment effects of this election were smaller than most would expect. The President has much less power to change policy than most people think – especially in the face of a Senate filibuster. Either candidate would need to forge alliances with the other party to make major changes. OppenheimerFunds has some interesting comments about surprises from past elections, and advice for investors this time.
Data indicate that many are not following this