GoPro stock was down in pre-market trading on Thursday as the action camera maker has stopped shipping to Amazon. However, the decision of not selling to Amazon is temporary, and sales will start as usual by the end of October, GoPro management clarified.
Will GoPro hit its guidance numbers?
Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy believes that GoPro’s outlook for the second half of 2016 doesn’t include the disruption to Amazon sales, and thus, she is “incrementally concerned” about GoPro’s ability to hit its guidance numbers.
“Nonetheless, this is a disruption of a key partner that we believe was not contemplated in guidance and we will continue to monitor the progress of this channel partner into the Holiday season,” the analyst said.
Sales to Amazon represent an estimated 12% to 14% of GoPro’s sales. Meanwhile, the action camera maker has been shipping as usual to Best Buy, its own GoPro.com channel and other partners. Piper Jaffray has reiterated its Underweight rating on the stock with a price target of $9.
This drop in the stock price is just a reaction to an event, so now let’s expand the period and talk about the roller-coaster ride that GoPro’s stock has been witnessing since for the month or so.
Down, but not out
About a month ago, GoPro launched its Karma drone and Hero Session 5 camera — its first major launch in more than a year. Following the launch, the stock gained 20%, but after the hype faded, the stock dropped more than 15% in the last week. A report from amigobulls lists two reasons for the crash.
First, the stock jumped much higher than the company’s fundamentals warranted after the launch. Second, the launch of the Mavic drone by DJI impacted it. The Mavic is better than GoPro’s Karma on many counts; it is lighter, smaller, and can fly faster, higher, and longer. More importantly, GoPro’s Karma lacks two vital features that Mavic has: “obstacle avoidance system” and “follow me,” notes amigobulls.
According to the website, the stock is now back to reasonable levels, but it could gain again on the back of good third-quarter numbers, including sales of the Karma and Hero Session 5. There are several reasons to believe the numbers will be good. The Hero Session 5, the first major update after more than a year, is likely to push sales up. It will reap the benefit of the holiday season too. Also the Karma enjoys several advantages over the others, despite competition from several players.
At 10:08 a.m. Eastern, GoPro shares were down 0.84% at $14.18.