Chemical Activity Hits Record…Expansion To Continue

Chemical Activity Hits Record…Expansion To Continue

“Davidson” submits:

The CAB(Chemical Activity Barometer) reports a new historic high of 115.15. The CAB, a new economic indicator introduced June 2012, has been effective as an indicator of economic activity spanning 1919-Present.

It works well because it includes a broad mix of economically sensitive measures based on the production and use of chemicals which add productivity to every economic sector.

Despite 60% Loss On Shorts, Yarra Square Up 20% In 2020

Yarra Square Investing Greenhaven Road CapitalYarra Square Partners returned 19.5% net in 2020, outperforming its benchmark, the S&P 500, which returned 18.4% throughout the year. According to a copy of the firm's fourth-quarter and full-year letter to investors, which ValueWalk has been able to review, 2020 was a year of two halves for the investment manager. Q1 2021 hedge fund Read More


The CAB leads by two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months. The CAB is a composite index which is comprised of indicators drawn from a range of chemicals and sectors, including chlorine and other alkalies, pigments, plastic resins and other selected basic industrial chemicals. It first originated through a study of the relationship between the business cycles in the production of selected chemicals and cycles in the larger economy. Other specific indicators used include:

  • Hours worked in chemicals;
  • Chemical company stock data; publicly sourced, chemical price information;
  • End-use (or customer) industry sales-to-inventories; and
  • Several broader leading economic measures (building permits and ISM PMI new orders).


The CAB’s recent up-turn is forecasting continued economic expansion. Equity markets ($SPY) should follow.


Previous article Expert Network Largely Corroborates MW, MedSec – St. Jude Medical
Next article Blue Tower 3Q16 Up 28% YTD Details Tyson Foods Investment Thesis
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.

No posts to display