IEA Flops On Oil Price Prediction by Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays
The IEA is good for one thing only, compiling data…..their predictive skills ought be ignored
The ExodusPoint Partners International Fund returned 0.36% for May, bringing its year-to-date return to 3.31% in a year that's been particularly challenging for most hedge funds, pushing many into the red. Macroeconomic factors continued to weigh on the market, resulting in significant intra-month volatility for May, although risk assets generally ended the month flat. Macro Read More
Tracking what some authority said over time provides a good means of assessing whether their analysis is valuable or not. The IEA in my opinion simply reacts to price change and does not provide much value to some one seeking fundamental analysis. The flip-flop the IEA just performed shows this.
It takes time to do this type of analysis on those making market predictions, but it is necessary to sort out the few who do offer good insight from those better characterized as ‘talking heads’. As recently as 2 ½ weeks ago the IEA forecasted low prices due to an uncontrollable glut in the oil ($USO) ($OIL) market.
IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut
March 11, 2016 — 4:00 AM EST http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-11/iea-says-oil-price-may-have-bottomed-as-high-cost-producers-cut
Crude Glut Could Take Years to Disappear, IEA Data Show
OPEC official won’t rule out additional steps to stabilize the market http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-glut-could-take-years-to-disappear-iea-data-show-1456152294 2/22/2016
IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil
January 19, 2016 — 4:00 AM EST http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/iea-says-oil-rout-could-deepen-as-market-drowns-in-oversupply