IEA Flops On Oil Price Prediction

IEA Flops On Oil Price Prediction by Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays

The IEA is good for one thing only, compiling data…..their predictive skills ought be ignored

“Davidson” submits

Tracking what some authority said over time provides a good means of assessing whether their analysis is valuable or not. The IEA in my opinion simply reacts to price change and does not provide much value to some one seeking fundamental analysis. The flip-flop the IEA just performed shows this.

It takes time to do this type of analysis on those making market predictions, but it is necessary to sort out the few who do offer good insight from those better characterized as ‘talking heads’. As recently as 2 ½ weeks ago the IEA forecasted low prices due to an uncontrollable glut in the oil ($USO) ($OIL) market.

IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut

March 11, 2016 — 4:00 AM EST http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-11/iea-says-oil-price-may-have-bottomed-as-high-cost-producers-cut

Crude Glut Could Take Years to Disappear, IEA Data Show

OPEC official won’t rule out additional steps to stabilize the market http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-glut-could-take-years-to-disappear-iea-data-show-1456152294 2/22/2016

IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil

January 19, 2016 — 4:00 AM EST http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/iea-says-oil-rout-could-deepen-as-market-drowns-in-oversupply

Oil Price

Oil Price




About the Author

valueplays
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.