IEA Flops On Oil Price Prediction by Todd Sullivan, ValuePlays
The IEA is good for one thing only, compiling data…..their predictive skills ought be ignored
On April 9th 2021, Bruce Greenwald, the founding director of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing at Columbia Business School, sat down for a Fireside Chat with Li Lu, the founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital as part of the 13th Columbia China Business Conference. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Read More
Tracking what some authority said over time provides a good means of assessing whether their analysis is valuable or not. The IEA in my opinion simply reacts to price change and does not provide much value to some one seeking fundamental analysis. The flip-flop the IEA just performed shows this.
It takes time to do this type of analysis on those making market predictions, but it is necessary to sort out the few who do offer good insight from those better characterized as ‘talking heads’. As recently as 2 ½ weeks ago the IEA forecasted low prices due to an uncontrollable glut in the oil ($USO) ($OIL) market.
IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut
March 11, 2016 — 4:00 AM EST http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-11/iea-says-oil-price-may-have-bottomed-as-high-cost-producers-cut
Crude Glut Could Take Years to Disappear, IEA Data Show
OPEC official won’t rule out additional steps to stabilize the market http://www.wsj.com/articles/crude-glut-could-take-years-to-disappear-iea-data-show-1456152294 2/22/2016
IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil
January 19, 2016 — 4:00 AM EST http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/iea-says-oil-rout-could-deepen-as-market-drowns-in-oversupply