The Climate Change Debate – A Scientific Consensus On What Now?

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The Climate Change Debate – A Scientific Consensus On What Now?
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The Climate Change Debate – A Scientific Consensus On What Now? by Robert P. Murphy, Foundation For Economic Education

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Authority versus Science in the Climate Change Debate

When it comes to the climate change debate, many of the loudest voices are confidently making assertions that are not backed up by the actual evidence — and in this respect, they are behaving very unscientifically.

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One obvious sign that many people in the climate change debate are appealing to emotions rather than facts is their reliance on pejorative terminology. For example, rather than make an informative statement that they support subsidies for wind and solar, and taxes on coal and oil, they may instead say they support “clean energy” while their opponents favor “dirty energy.”

The coup de grace, of course, occurs when partisans in the debate refer to their opponents as “climate deniers.” This is a nonsensical slur that would have impressed Orwell. Obviously, nobody denies climate. Furthermore, nobody denies that the climate is changing. And, when it comes to the serious debate among published climate scientists, people on both sides agree that human activities are contributing to warmer temperatures; the dispute is simply over how much. (Those who think the change is mild have embraced the label “lukewarmers.”)

To label critics of a carbon tax or EPA regulations on power plants as “climate deniers” is utterly destructive of rational inquiry and tries to link legitimate skepticism to Holocaust denial. Those who use this term without irony demonstrate that they have no interest in scientific discovery.

Related to this lack of nuance, and the appeal to an exaggerated consensus, is the oft-repeated claim that “97 percent of climate scientists agree” on the state of human-generated climate change. Physicist-turned-economist David Friedman (among others) has investigated the methods used to generate such claims, and finds that they are seriously lacking.

Using the very data (on abstracts from published papers) that forms the basis of these headline announcements, Friedman reckons that more like 1.6 percent of the surveyed papers explicitly endorse humans as the main cause of global warming since the 1800s. Friedman further argues that this confusion — where the actual findings of the paper ended up being misinterpreted by the media — appears to have been deliberately produced by the survey’s authors.

Climate Change Debate – “Hottest Year on Record” and “the Pause”

A January 2016 New York Times article epitomizes the advocacy disguised as reporting in the climate change debate. The very title lets you know that a serious case of scientism is coming, for it announces, “2015 Was Hottest Year in Historical Record, Scientists Say.”

Now, we must inquire, what is the purpose of adding “Scientists Say” at the end? Does any reader think that the Times would be quoting plumbers or accountants on whether 2015 was the hottest year on record? The obvious purpose is to contrast what scientists say about global warming with what those nonscientist deniers are saying. The article goes on to let us know exactly what “the scientists” think about global warming and manmade activities:

Scientists started predicting a global temperature record months ago, in part because an El Nino weather pattern, one of the largest in a century, is releasing an immense amount of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. But the bulk of the record-setting heat, they say, is a consequence of the long-term planetary warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.

“The whole system is warming up, relentlessly,” said Gerald A. Meehl, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

It will take a few more years to know for certain, but the back-to-back records of 2014 and 2015 may have put the world back onto a trajectory of rapid global warming, after a period of relatively slow warming dating to the last powerful El Nino, in 1998.

Politicians attempting to claim that greenhouse gases are not a problem seized on that slow period to argue that “global warming stopped in 1998,” with these claims and similar statements reappearing recently on the Republican presidential campaign trail.

Statistical analysis suggested all along that the claims were false, and that the slowdown was, at most, a minor blip in an inexorable trend, perhaps caused by a temporary increase in the absorption of heat by the Pacific Ocean.

This excerpt is quite fascinating. We have something reported as undeniable fact when it actually relies on assumptions of what might happen in the future (“may have put the world back onto a trajectory of rapid global warming”) and offers conjectures to explain why the measured warming suddenly slowed down (“perhaps caused by a temporary increase in the absorption of heat”).

The “statistical analysis” did not establish that the critics’ claims were false. It is undeniably true that the official NASA GISS records showed, for example, that the average annual global temperature in 2008 was lower than the annual temperature in 1998, and that’s why people at the time were saying, “There has been no global warming in the last ten years.”

Here is a NASA-affiliated scientist arguing that such claims are misleading, and perhaps they were, but it is similarly misleading to turn around and claim that the pause didn’t exist.

If you asked a bunch of Americans whether they gained weight over the last 10 years, their natural interpretation of that question would be, “Do I weigh more now than I weighed 10 years ago?” They wouldn’t think it involved construction of moving averages since birth. In that sense, the people referring to the pause were not acting dishonestly; they were pointing out to the public a fact about the temperature record that would definitely be news to them, in light of the rhetoric of runaway climate change.

However, the more substantive point here is that the popular climate models predicted much more warming than has in fact occurred. In other words, the question isn’t whether the 2000s were warmer than the 1990s. Rather, the issue is given how much concentrations of greenhouse gases have risen, is the actual temperature trend consistent with the predicted temperature trend?

To answer this, consider a December 2015 Cato Institute working paper from two climate scientists, Pat Michaels and Paul Knappenberger: “Climate Models and Climate Reality: A Closer Look at a Lukewarming World.” They avoid the accusation of cherry-picking by running through trend lengths of varying durations, and they compare 108 model runs with the various data sets on observed temperatures. They conclude, “During all periods from 10 years (2006–2015) to 65 (1951–2015) years in length, the observed temperature trend lies in the lower half of the collection of climate model simulations, and for several periods it lies very close (or even below) the 2.5th percentile of all the model runs.”

Thus we see that the critics arguing about the model projections aren’t simply picking the very warm 1998 as a starting point in order to game the results. The standard models produced warming projections well above what has happened in reality, and for some periods the observed warming was so low (relative to the prediction) that there is less than a 2.5 percent chance that this could be explained by natural volatility. This is the sense in which the current suite of climate models is on the verge of being “rejected” in the statistician’s sense.

To be sure, I am not a climate scientist, and others would no doubt dispute the interpretation of the data that Michaels and Knappenberger give. My point is to show how utterly misleading the New York Times piece is when it leads readers to believe that “scientists” were never troubled by lackluster warming and that only politicians were trying to confuse the public on the matter.

Climate Change Debate – Climate Economists Don’t Believe Their Models?

Finally, consider a December 2015 Vox piece with the title, “Economists Agree: Economic Models Underestimate Climate Change.” Furthermore, the URL for this piece contains the phrase “economists-climate-consensus.” We see the same appeal to authority here as in the natural sciences when it comes to climate policy.

The Vox article refers to a survey of 365 economists who had published in the field of climate economics. Here is the takeaway: “Like scientists, economists agree that climate change is a serious threat and that immediate action is needed to address it” (emphasis added).

Yet, in several respects, the survey reveals facts at odds with the alarmist rhetoric the public hears on the issue. For example, one question asked, “During what time period do you believe the net effects of climate change will first have a negative impact on the global economy?” With President Obama and other important officials discussing the ravages of climate change (allegedly) before our very eyes, one might have expected the vast majority of the survey respondents to say that climate change is having a negative impact right now.

In fact, only 41 percent said that. Twenty-two percent thought the negative impact would be felt by 2025, while an additional 26 percent would only say climate change would have net negative economic effects by 2050. Would anyone have expected that result when reading Vox’s summary that immediate action is needed to address climate change?

To be clear, the Vox statement is not a lie; it can be justified by the responses on two of the other questions. Yet the actual views of these economists are much more nuanced than the pithy summary statements suggest.

Climate Change Debate – Authority versus Science

On this particular survey, I personally encountered the height of absurdity in the context of scientism and appeal to authority. For years, in my capacity as an economist for the Institute for Energy Research, I have pointed out that the published results in the United Nations’ official “consensus” documents do not justify even a standard goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, let alone the over-the-top rhetoric of people like Paul Krugman.

In order to push back against my claim, economist Noah Smith pointed to the survey discussed earlier, proudly declaring, “Apparently most climate economists don’t believe their own models.” Thus we have reached the point where partisans on one side of a policy debate rely on surveys of what “the experts say,” in order to knock down the other side who rely on the published results of those very experts.

This is the epitome of elevating appeals to scientific authority over the underlying science itself.

In the climate change debate, legitimate disputes are transformed into a battle between Noble Seekers of Truth versus Unscientific Liars Who Hate Humanity. Time and again, references to “the consensus” are greatly exaggerated, while people pointing out enormous problems with the case for policy action are dismissed as “deniers.”

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11 COMMENTS

  1. Oh Goody, lets play a game of …….

    ….GOT-YA!!! (fooled me once, shame on you, fooled me twice…..)

    There is one simple rule, follow the money connections and spot the unmentioned conflicts of interest.

    OK, so…….

    Paul P Murphy is an economist who works for the Institute for Energy Research whose funding includes Exxon Mobil and the Claude R Lambe Foundation……

    …. which is a front group for everybody’s favorite fossil fueled villains the Koch Brothers (boooo!)….

    …. who coincidentally also provide funding to the Foundation for Economic Education (see above article)….

    ….bringing us neatly back to Murphy who has just hit us with a resolute defense of the vested interests of fossil fuel industries using references to Pat Michaels & Chip Knappenberger working out of the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank originally named the Charles Koch Foundation (hiss).

    So for anyone who hasn’t been paying attention, you have just been fed a propaganda piece by someone working for a Koch funded libertarian think tank relying for proof on another Koch funded libertarian think tank……. as the saying goes, “ask my brother am I a liar“.

  2. Scientists use data to “prove” man made global warming but ignores the same data to “prove” man made global warming doesn’t exist.

  3. Friedman is using pathetically stupid math. According to science deniers like that, gravity is also not “97%” approved. The key point is that of the papers that take an actual stand (most ASSUME anthropogenic climate change), 97% agree that humans are the cause of climatge change.
    If Freidman can’ actually read the paper for comprehension, he has an issue with the actual facts.
    Every major scientific organization on the WORLD endorses anthropogenic climate change:
    https://www.opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php

    There is no DEBATE. The question of HOW much climate change is due to humans is also resolved – almost ALL of it. The natural forces are actually COOLING the planet and we know from the radioisoptopic signature of C02 that the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere is from human sources.

    So in summary – no, there is no scientific “debate”. Only a bunch of science DENIERS, not CLIMATE deniers, SCIENCE deniers.

  4. Play, play the violin as the planet burns up in a global climate change holocaust!!!

    Your children and your loved ones are also on top the pyre of your dirty energy fueled greed and will be sacrificed.

    Do not listen to the dirty fossil fuel Koch brothers, their ilk, and their agents.

    They lie we all die.

  5. Whether there was or was not a “pause” depends on how you define the word “pause”. If you follow the primary trend (green trend line in the graph below), there wasn’t a pause. If you follow short term trends (red line in the graph below) there was a pause. Even if you follow the “red line”, the “pause” is history.
    http://www.durangobill.com/GwdLiars/GWDNOAAstopped1975.jpg
    The graph above shows the actual global temperature anomalies as compiled by NOAA/NCDC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Climate Data Center – http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ ) from 1975 to Jan. 2016. Individual months, a 25 month centered moving average, a least squares trend line, and 10-year warming rates are shown. The graph uses data that can be found at:
    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php
    Slope (green line) = 0.165 degrees C. warming per decade.
    The moving average (yellow line) shows that new record high global temperatures were set through
    at least Jan. 2016.
    Note: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) maintains the world’s largest climate data archive.
    If you want to use calendar years as your measurement tool, then the NOAA/NCDC (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration /National Climatic Data Center) data shows that 2005 broke the 1998 average for record warmth. Then 2010 broke the record again. Then 2014 broke the record again. And 2015 just set still another record. (Data available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php )
    The NASA / Columbia University temperature database shows a similar pattern.
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
    The red line in the above chart shows short term (10-year) warming rates in degrees per decade. Technically, it shows the 10-year, least squares slope ending at the plot position.
    The short term slope is subject to volcanic eruptions, El Nino/La Nina conditions, and/or ordinary random statistical noise. Global Warming Deniers will pick out the low points in this warming rate and claim that global warming has stopped, and/or global warming has paused, and/or global warming is in a hiatus, and/or global warming doesn’t exist, etc. When you look at the larger picture, it is obvious that these short term fluctuations are just a part of a longer term upward trend.
    This is also a good time to update a comparison of actual temperature anomalies vs. the IPCC and CMIP-5 computer model projections.
    http://www.durangobill.com/GwdLiars/GwdCMIP5.jpg
    (Ed Hawkins is a computer scientist at the University of Reading.)
    As can be seen in the above chart, current global temperatures are actually running a little warmer than the computer models.

  6. Fastest way to kill the “consensus” progressive talking point on the farce that is global warming… Bring up the consensus of architects and engineers that understand the farce that is the official story of how World Trade Center buildings 1, 2, and 7 collapsed on 9/11.

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