A recent study by a physicist at Oxford University has effectively dismissed your favorite conspiracy theories by using math to show the unlikelihood of being able to keep something like the Kennedy assassination secret for any period of time.
Conspiracy theories – Math says you’re off your bloody rocker
Dr. David Grimes at Oxford University has an equation that says there is no way that alleged conspiracies could “survive” the scrutiny of the public either because someone would come forward or it would accidentally be disclosed.
His work was recently published in Plos One journal and his equation put four famous conspiracy theories to the sword. His equation is put together with three primary factors: the amount of time that has passed, the intrinsic probability of failure and the number of people involved in the alleged conspiracy.
The four conspiracy theories that his equation “disproved”: the fake moon landing, the belief that vaccines cause autism, the fact that pharmaceutical companies have a cure for cancer but won’t disclose it, and the idea that climate change is nothing less than “fraud.”
“The mathematical methods used in this paper were broadly similar to the mathematics I have used before in my academic research on radiation physics,” Dr Grimes said.
That same math has the moon landing “hoax” being revealed in 3.7 years, the climate change “fraud” in 3.7 to 26.8 years (so you deniers still have time on the top end), the cancer “conspiracy in 3.2 years, and the vaccine autism link taking 3.2 to 34.8 years before being publicly revealed.
The conspiracy debunking equation explained
Dr. Grimes equation was essentially reverse engineering actual conspiracies that were ultimately revealed: The US National Security Agency (NSA), surveillance program known as PRISM that was revealed by Edward Snowden, The Tuskegee syphilis experiment wherein African-Americans were not given the cure to syphilis (penicillin) in order to study the diseases effects and finally, the FBI’s misleading statements about its forensic analysis techniques that led to the imprisonment and even execution of innocent people.
In order: the PRISM program involved, at the top end, 36,000 and was revealed after six years, the Tuskegee experiment involved as many as 6,700 people and Dr. Peter Buxtun turned whistleblower after roughly 25 years and Dr Frederic Whitehurst revealed the FBI’s lies that involved as many as 500 people six years after the conspiracy began.
The equation gives the conspirators the benefit of the doubt and a “best case scenario” in which those involved are good at keeping secrets and there are no ongoing investigations from the outside.
After working through all sorts of math and devising the equation he worked out that it’s nearly impossible to fake it for that long. Take the moon landing, in order for it to be faked it would have required 411,000 NASA employees to say nothing. Now that 50 years have passed, Grimes equation says that in order for the moon landing to be a hoax, only 251 conspirators could have been involved.
Dr Grimes added: “While I think it’s difficult to impossible to sway those with a conviction… I would hope this paper is useful to those more in the middle ground who might wonder whether scientists could perpetuate a hoax or not.”
Looks like we walked on the moon.
I for one, having lost a number of friends on 9/11, look forward to having Dr. Grimes research at hand when I run into the next 9/11 conspiracy theorist rather than just punching them in the mouth per usual, I’m getting too old for that.