Is Crude Oil Set To Go The Way Of Copper, Lumber And Gold On A Breakout Of The USD? by Bryce Coward, CFA, Gavekal Capital Blog
WTI crude oil is at an interesting junction currently. As we write, the USD is on the precipice of a major breakout while WTI crude is just a few percent away from the its late-August lows. Meanwhile, the other most cyclically inclined commodities (copper, lumber) have already breached their earlier lows and the Baltic Dry Index is sitting right at its low. Gold, sensing the imminent rate rise by the Fed and the consequent stronger USD, is also plunging new lows for the cycle. If a USD breakout does occur it would seem highly probable that that WTI crude oil follows the commodity complex to new lows on the year, which, by the way, would be a heck of a way to usher in the holiday season for the US consumer.