# Jeffrey Gundlach – Probability Of A Federal Reserve Hike

Jeffrey Gundlach’s DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund Webcast titled “In Our Time.”

### Jeffrey Gundlach – Probability Of A Federal Reserve Hike

Source: Bloomberg. Probability calculated using Fed Funds futures data.

Seth Klarman’s 2021 Letter: Baupost’s “Never-Ending” Hunt For Information

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You cannot invest directly in an index.

### Probability of Rate Hike

February 2, 2015 through September 4, 2015

Source: Bloomberg; Doubleline

Calculation implied by the prices of the Fed Funds futures.

### Why Hike Now? Nominal GDP vs. Real GDP

Source: DoubleLine, Bianco, Bloomberg

YoY – year?over?year. GDP = the amount of goods and service produced within a given country/ territory QE3 = Quantitative Easing 3 program. Nominal GDP is the gross domestic product but has not been adjusted for inflation. Real GDP is a macroeconomic measure of the value of economic output adjusted for price changes or inflation. This adjustment transforms the money?value measure, nominal GDP, into an index fro quantity of total output. You cannot invest directly in an index..

### Probability of a Federal Reserve Hike

September 3, 2013 to September 3, 2015

Source: Bloomberg

GDDCAFJP = Atlanta Fed GFPNow Forecasts that provides an estimate of overall economic activity in an economy. GDP CQOQ Index = Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecasts. GDP US Chained 2009 Dollars QoQ.

GDP = Gross Domestic Product is the amount of goods and services produced within a given country. You cannot invest directly in an index.

### U.S. Nominal GDP YoY

September 30, 1990 to August 19, 2015

Source: DoubleLine, Bloomberg

GDP = the amount of goods and service produced within a given country/ territory. Yoy = year?over?year. You cannot invest directly in an index..

### Why Hike Now? – Commodity Prices

September 8, 2005 to September 8, 2015

Source: DoubleLine, Bloomberg

CRY = Thompson/Rueters CRB Excess Return Index is an arithmetic average of commodity futures process with monthly rebalancing. You cannot invest directly in an index..

### Why Hike Now? – Junk Bonds

September 8, 2010 to September 8, 2015

Source: DoubleLine, Bloomberg

JNK = SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF in an exchange?traded incorporated in the U.S. It seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield of the Barclays High Yield Very Liquid Bond Index. Please see the appendix for prospectus link, description, expenses, etc. for JNK. DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund owns 0% JNK as of September 8, 2015. You cannot invest directly in an index.

### Why Hike Now? – Emerging Market Equities

September 3, 2005 through September 1, 2015

Source: DoubleLine, Bloomberg

EM Equities (MXEF Index)= The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free?float weighted equity index. You cannot invest directly in an index.

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