Does Greece Control the German Stock Market?

We aren’t experts in stocks – we’re certainly not experts in foreign stocks – and we’re definitely not experts in European politics – specifically the debt talks that Greece and Germany are having.  Which begs the rhetorical question… is anyone an expert in such things?  But there’s no denying the role Greece has played in European markets, be it the Euro Currency, or the Euro Bund.  Fast forward to today and we’re seeing the Dax make a bit of a crazy move of its own:

By our estimates today’s DAX trading range for the June 2015 Futures contract was around 216 full points today, which comes out to be around a $6,086 move (216 * $28.18 per point move). For more on the DAX, check out “What You Oughta To Know about the DAX.”

Three quick thoughts on the move:

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  1. Today’s move actually doesn’t amount to much, as it was a very quick sell off of the night’s move until the news. If you missed the news of Greece and Germany talks ending, you would see that the Dax is up around 37 basis points today.
  2. Seeing how far the Dax has come since 2009, since 2012, and even this year – we’re not sure there has to be a reason it sells off sharply. Someone could sneeze and deflate some of this huge move.
  3. Those 2000 and 2007 highs sure seem like logical and technically significant resting points for if and when this thing does sell off in earnest. Just so happens that’s around 20% from here, the classic ‘correction’ level.
DAX Greece

(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Chart Courtesy: Finviz

Economist RecessionImage Courtesy: The Economist