Treasuries, Volatility, The Fed, Oil, And The Labor Markets: US Recap For Mar, 2015 by $hane Obata via Tha Business blog.
The US 10Y Yield closed at 1.913% on Apr 2, 2015; down 34.6 basis points from the Mar 6 high:
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Treasuries continue to rally because of safe haven demand and relative value.
The volatility that’s present in bonds hasn’t carried over to stocks.
That said, both markets have seen big swings year to date.
Investors are likely to remain uncertain about the future as the Fed stays “data dependent.”
Nevertheless, “Fed funds futures imply the first rate hike (in) 3Q15.” – $GS
Crude stocks hit a record high for the 12th week in a row.
Moreover, they continue to diverge from the prior 10-year range.
“US crude production fell week over week for only the 2nd time this year…” – Zerohedge
If production continues to fall then oil prices may find some fundamental support.
The labor markets
The NFP report on Apr 3, 2015 could set the tone for the market action in the coming weeks.
If the number comes in above expectations then we should see USD strength and UST weakness.
A few things to consider
- Will earnings improve in Q2?
- If US economic data worsens then will the SPX hold up?
- What happens if and when US crude stocks reach capacity?