Kyle Bass talks at The Economist’s conference in New York.
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The Buttonwood Gathering 2015
February 10th / New York, NY
Where are leading investors putting their money? What markets and sectors do they see primed for growth? What are the biggest risk factors they see to achieving a healthy return on investment? What can we expect sustainable returns to be and for how long? Will crony capitalism increase uncertainty and distort free market opportunities?
Chief investment officer, Hayman Capital Management
Chief investment officer, Merrill Lynch Wealth Management
Managing director and chief investment officer, Bessemer Trust
Buttonwood columnist and capital markets editor, The Economist
Highlights from Kyle Bass
The Fed is backed in a corner because unemployment is very high (if you include those not looking for work) but they need to raise rates soon.
Skilled workers in US fully employed so you will see some wage growth. This should drive down profit margins. There are some economies where the usual rate is 10-12% most of the time and we just have to deal with that.
QE has widened the income gap – how many rich people are poorer than at the peak of 06/07 – I cannot think of any. The next recession will be tough since we will have less returns.
2015 – interesting market place for equities – expecting an S&P (500) return of plus or minus zero.
More worried bout stocks than bonds – Mid-cap, small cap equities are tough
Brazil raising rates because of currency collapse – everyone piled in and no one could get out at the same time.
Full video below