Why Elon Musk Is Worried About AI In The Next Five Years

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Why Elon Musk Is Worried About AI In The Next Five Years
Blomst / Pixabay

Two days ago Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk unintentionally made news when a private email of his was published warning that the possibility of something very dangerous happening because of artificial intelligence. The email was taken down almost immediately, but a screenshot was captured and multiple people say that they had seen it on edge.org before it was taken down. This is the first time that Musk has warned about the dangers of AI, but it’s the first time that he gave such a specific timeframe.

“Unless you have direct exposure to groups like Deepmind, you have no idea how fast-it is growing at a pace close to exponential. The risk of something seriously dangerous happening is in the five year timeframe. 10 years at most. This is not a case of crying wolf about something I don’t understand,” said Musk.

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But his reference to the AI research team Deepmind, which Google acquired for $400 million earlier this year, reveals why he thinks AI could accelerate so rapidly.

Elon Musk: Five years out from artificial general intelligence

The Deepmind website is incredibly vague about what the company is actually doing, but they have talked about their work in the past. For example back in 2011, cofounder Shane Legg did an interview with LessWrong about the possible dangers of AI. LessWrong asked him, “Can you think of any milestone such that if it were ever reached you would expect human-level machine intelligence to be developed within five years thereafter?”

And Legg answered, “That’s a difficult question! When a machine can learn to play a really wide range of games from perceptual stream input and output, and transfer understanding across games, I think we’ll be getting close.”

Now fast forward to April of this year at the FDOT14 (First Day of Tomorrow) conference, where fellow Deepmind cofounder Demis Hassabis showed one of the company’s recent breakthroughs. An algorithm that they had developed was not only able to play Atari games competently, using perceptual stream input as Legg had mentioned, but he was able to devise strategies that took advantage of each game’s idiosyncrasies. In Hassabis’ words, “It sort of ruthlessly exploits the weakness in the system that it’s found.”

Elon Musk: Neural Turing Machines

Watching the algorithm crush these games (without being programmed to do so) is impressive, but it’s also not what Deepmind expected to happen.

“When our researchers… saw that, that actually shocked them because we haven’t added in the sort of capabilities like long-term memory at that point, that we had thought would be needed to solve that kind of game in that way.”

In other words, Deepmind had stumbled on to more capabilities than they had realized only using a combination of a neural net and short-term memory. Then, last month Deepmind researchers released a paper titled Neural Turing Machines, arguing that the addition of short-term memory to neural nets effectively creates a new approach to artificial intelligence because the algorithm can use the patterns stored in that short-term memory to apply what his learned in solving one task to a seemingly unrelated task, but we normally referred to as general intelligence.

So it seems like the five-year-out mark set by Legg three years ago was passed relatively recently, which probably explains why the dangers of artificial general intelligence has been on Musk’s mind.

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6 COMMENTS

  1. Got your goat. You haters can’t handle the truth and facts. You Tesla fan boys fear and hate the truth.

    eLOON Musk and his sycophants don’t care about the environment.

    Elon Musk quote:
    “F**k Earth! Who cares about Earth?”

  2. eLOON Musk essentially is saying that artificial intelligence will become self-conscious, takeover & start killing people within 5 & not less then 10 years. If it happens, I doubt it would be that soon. If he really believes the technology is so dangerous, so soon, then why is he advocating autonomous cars that could be used for terrorist attacks? Why is he investing in robots & AI? Is he trying to subjugate humans to AI? I think eLOON Musk is LOONy. lol

    Elon Musk is a pitchman, that ought to be in prison like Kevin Trudeau. Elon Musk & his cronies are examples of corporate greed.

    Several months ago the Tesla and Bitcoin fan boys were spamming a bunch of hype about the Tesla that was bought with Bitcoins. Beyond all the hype, it seems the truth is that it was bought by a crook with dirty money. The Tesla fan boys (the Tesla Mafia) have been cheering on & supporting organized crime.

    Blake Benthall was an employee of Elon Musk the CEO of SpaceX & Tesla Motors. Allegedly some of the laundered money was used to buy a Tesla. Elon Musk is on record making fraudulent claims about Tesla batteries. Elon Musk & his corporate shills falsely claim that Tesla batteries are non-toxic, nonhazardous, environmentally friendly & landfill safe.

    According to TESLA Motors, the high voltage battery (lithium-ion battery) can release toxic vapors; including sulfuric acid, oxides of carbon, nickel, aluminum, lithium, copper, & cobalt.

    Tesla fan boys are shills that spam slander, lies, FUD, hate, & ignorance. Tesla fan boys have no credibility and are a laughingstock. lol They ought to be in prisons or/and a mental institutions. They don’t want you to believe experts, instead they want you to believe lying, ignorant shills. They have no clue when it comes to science & technology. They are greedy people don’t care about the environment, safety or truth.

    Tesla fan boys can’t handle the truth.. Tesla fan boys fear and hate truth.

    A few examples of the hate, ignorance and lies the Tesla Mafia has spammed:

    WeaponZero “Lithium ion batteries are non-hazardous in both materials and waste”

    WeaponZero “lithium ion batteries(non-toxic)”

    WeaponZero “There are no toxic heavy metals in a lithium ion battery”

    WeaponZero “lithium ion batteries do not pose risk if they are land filled”.

    WeaponZero “lithium ion batteries are non-toxic”.

    WeaponZero “As I mentioned before, heavy metals are not a bad thing just because they are heavy metals. Lithium ion batteries are considered non-toxic. The CEO of BYD even drank one”

    WeaponZero “if a battery is discharged and not being used, even if compacted there is no issue”

    WeaponZero “landfill fires have nothing to do with lithium ion batteries”

    WeaponZero “I have done way more research on manufacturing of batteries and heavy metals than you”

    Peter Gordon “Tesla batteries are 100% non-toxic and declared completely safe for landfill”.

    Peter Gordon “Tesla lithium ion cells contain no heavy metals, nor any toxic materials”.

    WeaponZero “To note, 0 Tesla batteries exploded”.

    WeaponZero “There is 0 Tesla cars at risk of fire”

    WeaponZero “Actually, those things you see flickering are not battery cells but fireworks”

    grendal “there were no explosions”.

    grendal “the car didn’t explode”

    grendal “no car has ever exploded”.

    grendal “You also said the car exploded (it did not) and released toxic fumes when neither happened”.

    N??R “This is not even an explosion”

    CMCNestT . “The battery did not explode”.

    sranger “False, they are fireworks (4th of July after all)”

    Albertico “The car did not explode at all”.

    strata8 “Did not explode”.

    Tesla755 “No batteries exploded”.

    stopcrazypp “It didn’t actually explode”.

    stopcrazypp “the amount of gas expelled is not enough to act like a rocket and carry a cell two stories high”

    stopcrazypp “not any sort of explosion”.

    Xixo “Teslas were actually not explosions”

    Stewart Pid “the batteries didn’t explode”

    Dave_SRQ “There haven’t been any Tesla Model S recalls”

    sranger “I used LiFePo4 cells. They do NOT heat up when charger or discharged at up to 1000 amps so NO cooling is needed for these cells”.

    VulpineMac “They’re capacitors, not “batteries”.

    grendal “Even with this stupid thief that wasn’t even wearing a seatbelt the tally is that ZERO people have died in a Tesla”.

    Greenforce88 “The guy survived”.

    geoffrey bailey “zero fatalities”.

    geoffrey bailey “He was lucky that didn’t kill him”

    Albertico “the driver survived this accident”.

    grendal “the fact that the thief and his passenger are still alive after this happened is telling”

    Simonts “The driver survived!”.

    jeepesq ‘this thief was only ‘injured’ and not killed”

    Mirko “Guy steals car, walks away alive”.

    Peter Gordon “zero fatalities for Tesla”.

    Peter Gordon “There have been zero fatalities in a Tesla”

    Peter Gordon “no fatalities”

    Albertico “The Tesla does not have anything that can catch on fire in the front”.

    WeaponZero “For this to happen to a lithium ion battery is extremely rare, though more common with lithium polymer batteries”.
    (WeaponZero doesn’t know that lithium polymer is a type of lithium ion battery) lol

    Mark Yates “NICKEL, Aluminium, Lithium – the prime components of a lithium battery are not heavy metals”.

    The facts are that Tesla batteries are toxic and contain heavy metals; despite the fraudulent claims by Elon Musk in &Tesla sycophants.

    According to most scientists; commonly encountered HEAVY METALS are chromium, COBALT, NICKEL, COPPER, zinc, arsenic, selenium, silver, cadmium, antimony, mercury, thallium & lead.

    On page 18 of the 2012-2013 emergency responder guide for the Tesla model S. There are sections on firefighting & fire damage related to the high voltage battery; indicating that the battery can release TOXIC vapors. Including sulfuric acid, oxides of carbon, NICKEL, aluminum, lithium, COPPER, & COBALT.

    The leaking chemicals can be so dangerous, that it seems to suggest evacuating civilians from the proximity of a Tesla battery fire & it’s plume of toxic fumes. Emergency responders should wear full protective gear & self-contained breathing equipment to protect themselves from the toxic materials from the Tesla battery..

    The facts show that Teslas have exploded. Despite that the Tesla driver was killed in West Hollywood, Tesla fan boys exploited the tragedy by spamming fraudulent claims. The Tesla driver died but was revived by emergency responders, only to die again later at the hospital. Many Tesla shills falsely claimed he did not die, some even claimed he only had minor injuries & walked away. Many denied that the Tesla battery burned, exploded or that there were toxic fumes. Etc….

    Google:.

    “Photos: Stolen Tesla Splits In Half And Explodes After Crashing In West Hollywood”

    “The Tesla’s lithium battery exploded into flames that shot up several stories into the air”

    “Video shot from a nearby apartment showed burning lithium batteries popping and sending fiery debris more than three stories into the air”

    “A stolen Tesla speeding up La Brea Avenue at up to 100 miles per hour was sliced in half, and its lithium batteries exploded and burned, in a crash that injured at least six people today”

    “Tesla Model S Explodes After Accident in Mexico”

    Elon Musk & Tesla shills/fanboys are such lowlife scum that they slandered firefighters that risked their lives to put out the first highly publicized Tesla battery fire. Elon Musk and Tesla shills/fanboys slandered the firefighters claiming they shouldn’t have cut a hole through the firewall. According to the report by the firefighters, when they first tried to put out the fire with water, the fire flared up then didn’t go all the way out. They followed Elon Musk’s procedures, but Elon Musk’s procedures failed because the fire did not go all the way out because firefighters couldn’t get enough water on the battery. So the fire reignited. Firefighters then cut out the firewall and only then were able to successfully & completely extinguish the fire. Elon Musk & Tesla shills/fanboys are advocating what failed, & bashing what was successful..

    Elon Musk doesn’t care about the environment..

    Elon Musk quote:
    “F**k Earth! Who cares about Earth?”

  3. stock market. all of a sudden i realize Musk’s concern. i had watched the MIT interview where he also brought this up and i poo-poo’d it at the time. reading this, now i get it.

  4. People have pointed out that when the “Singularity” (as it is called) manifests, it will achieve exponential growth in whatever its goals are (be they paperclips or dollars). Perhaps this type of “slave” Singularity already exists: this exponential signal has already happened. Wealth inequality is exponentiating. Among the topmost wealthy, I hypothesize they have access to a wealth-optimizing AI.

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