Renowned bear and Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards usually looks at fundamental valuations and big macro trends, but in a recent not he shows that he’s just as willing to turn to technical analysis in his search for bad news. Right now he’s concerned that a weakening Yen, having just fallen below a fifteen-year uptrend, could be the catalyst for bigger global problems.
“A fragile Chinese economy could be pushed over the edge by a further yen devaluation – in many ways a replay of the Asian crisis of 1997,” says Edwards. “And just as the Chinese real economy data has taken a turn for the worse in August, the yen has slipped below a key 15-year support level against the dollar. This is probably the most important chart investors should focus on. The next phase of global currency wars may have begun.”
Weaker yen threatens both China and the West, says Edwards
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